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2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Maggie Hassan Kelly Ayotte
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 354,649 353,632
Percentage 47.98% 47.84%

Hassan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90%
Ayotte:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Tie:      50–60%      No votes

U.S. senator before election

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election to select the candidates who appeared on the general election ballot took place on September 13, 2016.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte ran for re-election to a second term in office and won the primary by a wide margin.[2] Governor Maggie Hassan chose not to seek reelection to a third term as governor and instead sought the nomination of the Democratic Party for the Senate. Hassan was unopposed in the Democratic primary and won the general election by 1,017 votes, representing a winning margin of approximately 0.14%.[3] This made the election the closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, and also the closest race in a New Hampshire Senate election since the disputed 1974–75 election. Hassan became the first Democratic senator elected in this seat since the latter election and only the second since 1932.

The Democratic Party also flipped New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in the concurrent House election, thus marking the first time since 1854 that New Hampshire had an entirely Democratic congressional delegation. As of 2023, this remains the last time that a Democratic candidate for Senate in New Hampshire has failed to win a majority of the vote or lost any county other than Belknap and Coös. This was the first time since 1932 that a Democrat won a full term to this Senate seat in New Hampshire.

YouTube Encyclopedic

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Transcription

Republican primary

Ayotte was predicted to face opposition in the primary from a Tea Party candidate. In October 2013, former New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairman Jack Kimball said: "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger".[4] Ultimately, she faced only token opposition.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelly
Ayotte
Ovide
Lamontagne
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 358 ± ? 57% 32% 12%

Results

Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) 86,676 78.56%
Republican Jim Rubens 19,156 17.36%
Republican Tom Alciere 1,586 1.44%
Republican Gerald Beloin 1,255 1.14%
Republican Stanley Emanuel 1,187 1.08%
Democratic Maggie Hassan (write-in) 301 0.27%
Write-in 167 0.15%
Total votes 110,328 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Results

Democratic primary results[22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Maggie Hassan 70,374 98.16%
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) (write-in) 775 1.08%
Write-in 547 0.76%
Total votes 71,696 100.0%

Libertarian convention

On Saturday, January 16, 2016, the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire selected Brian Chabot to be their nominee for the U.S. Senate.[23][24]

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Ayotte Hassan Link
September 30, 2016 North Conway, New Hampshire Participant Participant Full debate - YouTube
October 14, 2016 Manchester, New Hampshire Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 27, 2016 Concord, New Hampshire Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
November 2, 2016 Manchester, New Hampshire Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte
Presidents
Governors (current and former)
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Maggie Hassan
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Labor Unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[92] Tossup November 2, 2016
Inside Elections[93] Tossup November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[94] Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016
Daily Kos[95] Lean D (flip) November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[96] Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 696 ± 4.6% 42% 51% 6% 1%
WMUR/UNH November 3–6, 2016 707 ± 3.7% 45% 49% 1% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 41% 50% 7% 2%
Emerson College November 4–5, 2016 1,000 ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5% 1%
WMUR/UNH November 2–5, 2016 645 ± 3.7% 45% 47% 2% 6%
WMUR/UNH November 1–4, 2016 588 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 2% 6%
WMUR/UNH October 31 – November 3, 2016 515 ± 3.7% 42% 48% 3% 7%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–2, 2016 1,001 ± 2.0% 46% 44% 10%
Suffolk University October 31 – November 2, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 44% 42% 5% 8%
American Research Group October 31 – November 2, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 2% 3%
WMUR/UNH October 30 – November 2, 2016 466 ± 3.7% 41% 48% 3% 8%
UMass Lowell/7News October 28 – November 2, 2016 695 LV ± 4.3% 46% 47% 5% 3%
901 RV ± 3.8% 43% 46% 5% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 658 ± 4.6% 37% 50% 10% 3%
Public Policy Polling October 31 – November 1, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 45% 48% 7%
WMUR/UNH October 29 – November 1, 2016 468 ± 3.7% 43% 47% 2% 8%
WBUR/MassINC October 29 – November 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% 3%
48% 43% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%
WMUR/UNH October 28–31, 2016 513 ± 3.7% 44% 46% 2% 8%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 659 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 8% 4%
WMUR/UNH October 27–30, 2016 463 ± 3.7% 45% 45% 2% 8%
WMUR/UNH Archived November 1, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 26–30, 2016 641 ± 3.9% 44% 46% 3% 8%
WMUR/UNH October 26–29, 2016 516 ± 3.7% 44% 45% 3% 8%
InsideSources/NH Journal October 26–28, 2016 408 ± 4.2% 49% 47% 4%
Emerson College October 23–25, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 50% 44% 6% 1%
Monmouth University October 22–25, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 46% 46% 6% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 20–24, 2016 768 LV ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 2%
1,020 RV ± 3.1% 48% 47% 2% 3%
UMass Amherst/WBZ October 17–21, 2016 772 ± 4.5% 48% 44% 4% 4%
46% 43% 4% 8%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2016 900 ± 3.2% 45% 45% 10% 1%
WMUR/UNH October 11–17, 2016 770 ± 3.5% 39% 48% 4% 9%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 8–16, 2016 569 ± 0.5% 42% 47% 10% 1%
WBUR/MassINC October 10–12, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 47% 47% 2% 5%
46% 45% 2% 6%
7News/UMass Lowell October 7–11, 2016 517 ± 4.9% 45% 44% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 7–9, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 43% 44% 13%
Suffolk University October 3–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 47% 41% 4% 6%
WBUR/MassINC September 27–29, 2016 502 ± 4.4% 45% 48% 3% 4%
46% 48% 3% 3%
GBA Strategies September 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 7% 2%
47% 49% 4%
American Research Group September 20–25, 2016 522 ± 4.2% 47% 47% 6%
Monmouth University September 17–20, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 2% 5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist September 6–8, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 52% 44% 4%
Emerson College September 3–5, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 48% 46% 6%
Public Policy Polling Archived September 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 30–31, 2016 585 ± 4.1% 44% 47% 9%
Public Policy Polling August 26–28, 2016 977 ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
WMUR/UNH August 20–28, 2016 433 ± 4.7% 42% 44% 3% 12%
CBS News/YouGov August 10–12, 2016 990 ± 4.3% 41% 42% 17%
Vox Populi Polling (R) August 7–8, 2016 820 ± 3.4% 43% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016 802 ± 3.5% 42% 47% 11%
WBUR/MassINC July 29 – August 1, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 50% 2% 7%
37% 48% 2% 11%
GBA Strategies July 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 47% 47% 2% 4%
InsideSources/NH Journal July 19–21, 2016 1,166 ± 5.1% 49% 41% 10%
WMUR/UNH July 9–18, 2016 469 ± 4.5% 42% 45% 3% 11%
American Research Group June 24–28, 2016 533 ± 4.2% 51% 42% 7%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 578 ± 4.1% 42% 44% 15%
Global Strategy Group Archived June 26, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 15–16, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 45% 49% 6%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived July 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 46% 47% 7%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 649 ± 3.9% 44% 47% 8%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University May 25–28, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 48% 47% 5%
Global Strategy Group Archived June 26, 2016, at the Wayback Machine May 25–26, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 43% 45% 12%
WBUR/MassINC May 12–15, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 46% 48% 2% 4%
Dartmouth College Archived June 10, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 11–16, 2016 362 ± 5.2% 37% 35% 28%
WMUR/UNH April 7–17, 2016 553 ± 4.2% 43% 42% 15%
WMUR/UNH February 20–28, 2016 628 ± 3.7% 45% 41% 4% 10%
Marist Poll January 28, 2016 2,258 ± 2.1% 45% 40% 15%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3.0% 44% 42% 14%
Public Policy Polling November 30 – December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 42% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 43% 44% 13%
Gravis Marketing October 5–6, 2015 1,035 ± 3.1% 52% 42% 6%
WMUR/UNH September 21 – October 2, 2015 519 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 44% 43% 13%
NBC News/Marist Poll Archived July 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine July, 2015 910 ± 3.2% 50% 42% 8%
WMUR/UNH July 7–20, 2015 472 ± 4.5% 47% 41% 1% 12%
The Tarrance Group July 5–6, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 51% 44% 5%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates June 25–28, 2015 500 ± 3.0% 52% 41% 7%
WMUR/UNH May 6–22, 2015 524 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 2% 9%
Gravis Marketing April 21–22, 2015 1,117 ± 3.0% 51% 43% 6%
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 45% 46% 9%
Gravis Marketing March 18–19, 2015 1,110 ± 5.0% 47% 45% 8%
Public Opinion Strategies February 17–18, 2015 424 ± 4.7% 46% 45% 9%
NBC News/Marist February 3–10, 2015 887 ± 3.3% 44% 48% 7%
New England College December 1, 2014 541 ± 4.2% 48% 43% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 46% 40% 14%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3.0% 45% 44% 11%
Public Policy Polling April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 44% 46% 10%
Hypothetical polling
with Kelly Ayotte
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Ann McLane
Kuster (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 49% 38% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Chris
Pappas (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 45% 31% 24%
with Jim Rubens
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Rubens (R)
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Other Undecided
WMUR/UNH August 20–28, 2016 433 ± 4.7% 27% 51% 8% 14%
WMUR/UNH July 9–18, 2016 469 ± 4.2% 30% 48% 6% 16%
WMUR/UNH April 7–17, 2016 553 ± 4.2% 30% 46% 24%
with Ovide Lamontagne
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ovide
Lamontagne (R)
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 35% 54% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ovide
Lamontagne (R)
Ann McLane
Kuster (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 39% 43% 18%

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Maggie Hassan (D) $18,698,223.00 $18,564,772.00 $133,450.00 $0
Kelly Ayotte (R) $16,409,753.89 $16,197,583.64 $134,182.99 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[97]

Results

State senate district results
United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016[3]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 354,649 47.98% +11.13%
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) 353,632 47.84% -12.25%
Independent Aaron Day 17,742 2.40% N/A
Libertarian Brian Chabot 12,597 1.70% +0.66%
Write-in 520 0.07% N/A
Total votes 739,140 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Hassan won 1 of the 2 congressional districts, and Ayotte won the other that also elected a Democrat.

District Ayotte Hassan Representative
1st 49% 47% Carol Shea-Porter
2nd 47% 49% Annie Kuster

Allegations of voting irregularities

In February 2017, President Donald Trump (who had endorsed Ayotte) told a gathering of senators at the White House that fraudulent out-of-state voting had cost him and Ayotte the election in New Hampshire.[98] On September 7, state House speaker Shawn Jasper (who also had endorsed Ayotte) alleged that voter fraud swung the election. He made the allegations based on a report by the New Hampshire House of Representatives saying that of the 6,540 voters who had registered to vote on election day, only 1,014 of those voters had obtained a New Hampshire driver's license by August 30 of the following year. The Washington Post was able to quickly contact three such voters who said that they were college students and kept the driver's license from their home state.[99]

Several investigations by New Hampshire's Ballot Law Commission found no evidence of widespread fraud, and only four instances of fraud total in the state for the 2016 elections.[100] Specifically addressing the claim of people being bussed in from out of state to vote, Associate Attorney General Anne Edwards noted that they found no evidence for such claims. When they investigated these claims, they found that the buses were chartered out of state, but the voters on the buses lived in New Hampshire and could legally vote there.[100]

See also

References

  1. ^ "2016 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  2. ^ a b John DiStaso (November 7, 2014). "Ayotte, hoping Senate finally 'gets things done,' says she'll seek reelection". NH Journal. Retrieved December 4, 2014.
  3. ^ a b "United States Senate - 2016 General Election" (PDF). New Hampshire Secretary of State Elections Division. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
  4. ^ a b c Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "For N.H. Republicans, Pain Is Probably Temporary". Roll Call. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
  5. ^ "Jim Rubens to challenge incumbent Sen. Ayotte in GOP primary". New Hampshire Union Leader. March 5, 2016. Archived from the original on March 6, 2016. Retrieved March 7, 2016.
  6. ^ a b c DiStaso, John (November 2, 2015). "Updated: O'Brien calls secret meeting to discuss primary challenge to Ayotte". WMUR. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  7. ^ Pindell, James (March 13, 2015). "In N.H., a critical US Senate race is already taking shape". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  8. ^ DiStaso, John (November 2, 2015). "Lamontagne: Ayotte 'most conservative US Senate candidate who can win'". WMUR. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  9. ^ Schinella, Tony (April 26, 2015). "Will O'Brien Primary Ayotte in 2016?". Concord Patch. Retrieved May 29, 2015.
  10. ^ Cline, Drew (July 22, 2015). "Former Speaker Bill O'Brien says a decade in the NH House is enough". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved July 23, 2015.
  11. ^ "2016 United States Senator - Republican Primary" (PDF). New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  12. ^ Cahn, Emily (October 5, 2015). "Maggie Hassan Will Run for Senate in New Hampshire (Video)". Roll Call. Retrieved October 5, 2015.
  13. ^ Morris, Allie (October 31, 2015). "Mark Connolly, New Castle resident, announces intent to run for governor". Concord Monitor. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
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  26. ^ Tokars, Mike (June 20, 2016). "GOP Calls In The Big Gun: George W. Bush is on the campaign trail". The National Memo. Retrieved June 21, 2016.
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  29. ^ a b Wolfe, Rob (March 7, 2016). "Ayotte holds firm on court". Valley News. Retrieved September 18, 2016.
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External links

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