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2016 Missouri Democratic primary

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Missouri Democratic primary, 2016

← 2012 March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15) 2020 →
 
Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 36 35
Popular vote 312,285[1] 310,711
Percentage 49.61% 49.36%

2016MissouriDemocraticPresidentialPrimary.png
Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
  Tie

The 2016 Missouri Democratic primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Missouri as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Missouri primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49.6%
Bernie Sanders
49.4%
Others / Uncommitted
1.0%
Public Policy Polling[2]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 839

March 11–12, 2016 Bernie Sanders
47%
Hillary Clinton
46%
Others / Undecided
7%
RABA Research[3]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 670

March 8–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
44%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
16%
Fort Hayes State University[4]

Margin of error: ± 8%
Sample size: 145

March 3–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[5]

Margin of error: 5.2%
Sample size: 352

August 7–9, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
25%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Jim Webb 5%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Not sure 12%

Results

Clinton went into election night in Missouri down to Senator Sanders in the polls. Throughout the evening Sanders maintained a lead over Clinton. However St. Louis County and Jackson County, home of a large section of Kansas City, came in late and it was just enough to push Clinton over the finish line. Senator Sanders refused to request a recount citing concerns over wasting taxpayer dollars.

Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 312,285 49.61% 36 11 47
Bernie Sanders 310,711 49.36% 35 2 37
Henry Hewes 650 0.10%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 442 0.07%
Jon Adams 433 0.07%
Rocky De La Fuente 345 0.05%
Willie Wilson 307 0.05%
Keith Russell Judd 288 0.05%
John Wolfe Jr. 247 0.04%
Uncommitted 3,717 0.59% 0 0 0
Total 629,425 100% 71 13 84
Source: The Green Papers, Missouri Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
State of Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 10 85656 59567 145223 6 4
2 6 46785 49661 96446 3 3
3 5 28983 35664 64647 2 3
4 5 26178 33428 59606 2 3
5 7 51696 45974 97670 4 3
6 5 28786 32129 60915 2 3
7 4 21574 31389 52963 2 2
8 5 20944 21259 42203 2 3
Total 47 310,602 309,071 619,673 23 24
PLEO 9 310,602 309,071 619,673 5 4
At Large 15 310,602 309,071 619,673 8 7
Gr. Total 71 310,602 309,071 619,673 36 35
Total vote 626,075 49.61% 49.37%
Source: Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander statewide results and Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander District results

Results by county

County[6] Clinton % Sanders % Others % Totals TEV TO%
Adair 799 40.7% 1,153 58.8% 15,231
Andrew 498 39.9% 728 58.4% 12,188
Atchison 141 44.5% 173 54.6% 3,815
Audrain 749 49.6% 728 48.2%
Barry 796 47.0% 874 51.6%
Barton 205 48.1% 214 50.2%
Bates 518 43.5% 632 53.1%
Benton 669 53.3% 567 45.2%
Bollinger 242 53.8% 203 45.1%
Boone 9,628 38.7% 15,076 60.6%
Buchanan 3,443 44.5% 4,148 53.7%
Butler 889 52.7% 766 45.4%
Caldwell 244 43.2% 314 55.6%
Callaway 1,378 44.5% 1,678 54.2%
Camden 1,388 48.9% 1,419 49.9%
Cape Girardeau 2,076 46.6% 2,335 52.4%
Carroll 233 43.2% 255 50.7%
Carter 138 48.6% 142 50.0%
Cass 3,765 46.8% 4,185 52.1%
Cedar 332 47.0% 361 51.1%
Chariton 321 52.1% 274 44.5%
Christian 2,146 40.8% 3,073 58.4%
Clark 202 51.4% 178 45.3%
Clay 10,630 45.5% 12,542 53.7%
Clinton 765 46.2% 852 51.4%
Cole 2,798 45.3% 3,303 53.5%
Cooper 516 50.1% 501 48.6%
Crawford 522 41.2% 712 56.2%
Dade 201 48.1% 213 51.0%
Dallas 397 42.9% 515 55.7%
Daviess 239 51.0% 221 47.1%
DeKalb 221 39.0% 328 57.8%
Dent 327 40.5% 449 55.6%
Douglas 268 40.5% 384 58.1%
Dunklin 724 60.9% 448 37.7%
Franklin 3,701 42.9% 4,784 55.4%
Gasconade 401 43.8% 507 55.3%
Gentry 171 48.0% 176 49.4%
Greene 10,910 38.3% 17,403 61.1%
Grundy 219 44.6% 262 53.4%
Harrison 158 48.5% 163 50.0%
Henry 780 51.7% 696 46.1%
Hickory 73 53.7% 60 44.1%
Holt 128 52.2% 110 44.9%
Howard 413 48.8% 408 48.2%
Howell 833 40.2% 1,209 58.4%
Iron 349 43.8% 426 53.5%
Jackson 48,860 52.9% 42,823 46.4%
Jasper 2,289 37.1% 3,826 62.0%
Jefferson 9,637 44.2% 11,830 54.3%
Johnson 1,473 42.5% 1,944 56.2%
Knox 134 56.8% 94 39.8%
Laclede 737 43.6% 927 54.8%
Lafayette 1,173 46.2% 1,324 52.2%
Lawrence 872 45.3% 1,028 53.5%
Lewis 239 48.3% 239 48.3%
Lincoln 1,561 43.1% 1,976 54.6%
Linn 436 50.5% 409 47.3%
Livingston 397 48.5% 398 48.6%
Macon 421 43.7% 505 52.4%
Madison 346 49.4% 334 47.6%
Maries 305 50.2% 291 47.9%
Marion 925 54.7% 707 41.8%
McDonald 364 47.6% 385 50.3%
Mercer 69 51.9% 63 47.4%
Miller 432 46.5% 480 51.7%
Mississippi 486 67.2% 209 28.9%
Moniteau 340 44.6% 409 53.7%
Monroe 252 50.9% 226 45.7%
Montgomery 330 49.4% 324 48.5%
Morgan 554 51.5% 506 47.1%
New Madrid 691 64.2% 360 33.5%
Newton 1,240 43.9% 1,553 55.0%
Nodaway 616 41.6% 831 56.1%
Oregon 319 53.0% 271 45.0%
Osage 314 47.7% 326 49.5%
Ozark 217 42.1% 293 56.8%
Pemiscot 602 69.4% 250 28.8%
Perry 436 49.3% 437 49.4%
Pettis 1,265 44.8% 1,509 53.5%
Phelps 1,137 38.4% 1,744 58.9%
Pike 661 57.0% 475 41.0%
Platte 4,645 47.1% 5,142 52.1%
Polk 744 46.1% 851 52.7%
Pulaski 860 44.6% 1,020 52.8%
Putnam 102 46.8% 108 49.5%
Ralls 415 54.5% 311 40.9%
Randolph 647 44.9% 750 52.0%
Ray 945 48.2% 968 49.5%
Reynolds 230 47.1% 228 46.7%
Ripley 259 49.1% 250 47.3%
Saline 910 51.4% 805 45.5%
Schuyler 124 49.2% 119 47.2%
Scotland 108 44.1% 134 54.7%
Scott 1,067 55.0% 834 43.0%
Shannon 317 50.6% 291 46.5%
Shelby 240 51.1% 200 42.6%
St. Charles 17,805 44.8% 21,593 54.3%
St. Clair 340 49.9% 320 47.0%
St. Francois 1,939 45.3% 2,267 53.0%
St. Louis (City) 34,458 55.0% 27,748 44.3%
St. Louis (County) 89,373 55.3% 71,134 44.0%
Ste. Genevieve 842 50.3% 798 47.6%
Stoddard 674 56.6% 489 41.1%
Stone 806 46.9% 885 51.5%
Sullivan 177 59.8% 112 37.8%
Taney 1,199 46.2% 1,373 52.9%
Texas 603 46.3% 666 51.2%
Vernon 490 47.8% 518 50.5%
Warren 986 44.0% 1,222 54.5%
Washington 754 51.4% 664 45.3%
Wayne 393 57.8% 264 38.8%
Webster 940 44.0% 1,170 54.8%
Worth 59 41.5% 76 53.5%
Wright 402 50.5% 385 48.4%
Total 310,602 49.6% 309,071 49.4% 6,429

Analysis

Hillary Clinton, having narrowly lost the Missouri primary to Barack Obama eight years prior, managed a slim 0.2-percentage-point-victory over an increasingly popular insurgent Bernie Sanders in 2016. With Sanders winning men 56-44, voters under the age of 45 67-32, and white voters 54-45, Clinton won among women 54-44, older voters 62-37, and African American voters 67-32.

Sanders won among voters who made less than $50k and $100k per year, with Clinton winning more affluent voters. And while Sanders won 67-33 among self-identified Independents who made up 24% of the electorate, Clinton won 55-44 among the 74% of voters who identified as Democrats. While Sanders won among liberals 53-46, Clinton won moderates and conservatives 55-44. Sanders was able to win 54-45 among union households, a key voting bloc in the industrial Midwest, and he won 53-46 among those who believe trade with other countries takes away U.S. jobs; trade deals championed by Bill and Hillary Clinton have not always gone over well in the industrial Rust Belt. In terms of each voters' family financial situation, voters who were "getting ahead" or "holding steady" opted for Clinton, while those who felt they were "falling behind" overwhelmingly favored Sanders.[7]

Clinton won a large victory in St. Louis City and St. Louis County (she won 55-44 according to exit polls, likely thanks to her ardent African American support), and she also managed a 51-48 victory in Kansas City on the western side of the state. Sanders, meanwhile, won victories in Columbia and Springfield, keeping the race close statewide, and won in the largely white, rural and more conservative counties, including areas of Northwestern Missouri bordering Kansas and Nebraska, and Southwestern Missouri bordering Oklahoma. All three neighboring states are Great Plains states that Sanders won earlier in March.

References

  1. ^ Missouri Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
  2. ^ "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
  3. ^ "Missouri Poll Results". RABA Research. Retrieved 11 March 2016.
  4. ^ "Missouri Poll Results". Fort Hayes State University. Retrieved 12 March 2016.
  5. ^ "Trump Up Big in Missouri; GOP Hopefuls Lead Clinton in State" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved 2015-08-12.
  6. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  7. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-10-10.
This page was last edited on 23 June 2019, at 13:31
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