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2012 United States presidential election in New York

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2012 United States presidential election in New York
Flag of New York (1901-2020).svg

← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
 
President Barack Obama, 2012 portrait crop.jpg
Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 8.jpg
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 4,485,877 2,490,496
Percentage 63.35% 35.17%

New york presidential election results 2012.svg
County Results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose 29 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Barack Obama carried the state of New York by a landslide margin, winning 63.35% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 35.17%.[1] As in previous elections, the Democratic ticket easily won, for the most part due to racking up great margins in New York City (which in and of itself makes up 42.2% of the state's population) and its metropolitan area. The city alone garnered Obama 1,995,241 votes (or 81.19% of the vote in the city). He also managed to win Staten Island (Richmond County) which he didn't get in 2008. The rest of his votes mostly came from Albany, Buffalo, Ithaca, Rochester, Syracuse, and their respective metropolitan areas, giving him a solid 28.18% lead over Romney. Obama even won in many rural counties. The Republicans won only in some rural parts of upstate and western New York.

New York was 1 of only 6 states to swing in President Obama's favor from 2008 to 2012, giving him the largest percentage of the vote for any presidential candidate in the state since 1964 and the second largest Democratic vote share in the state in history. Similar to New Jersey, some news outlets, such as the New York Times, have proposed that Obama's improved performance in these states – as opposed to worsened performances in areas like the Rust Belt – was due to his handling of Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29.[2] His endorsement from Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg[3] in response to the federal government's handling of the hurricane, which had devastating impacts on Long Island, southern Manhattan, and Staten Island, also contributed to Obama's improved performance.

Democratic primary

Barack Obama ran uncontested in the Democratic primary, and it was therefore cancelled.[4]

Republican primary

2012 New York Republican presidential primary
Flag of New York (1901-2020).svg

← 2008 April 24, 2012 (2012-04-24) 2016 →
 
Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 8.jpg
Ron Paul by Gage Skidmore 3 (crop 2).jpg
Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Delegate count 92 0
Popular vote 118,912 27,699
Percentage 62.42% 14.54%

 
Newt Gingrich by Gage Skidmore 3 (cropped).jpg
Rick Santorum by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Candidate Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum
Home state Georgia Pennsylvania
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 23,990 18,997
Percentage 12.59% 9.97%

New York Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2012.svg
New York results by county
  Mitt Romney
(Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)
2012 New York Republican presidential primary[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Projected delegate count
AP CNN
FOX
America Symbol.svg
Mitt Romney
118,912 62.42% 92 92
Ron Paul 27,699 14.54% 0 0
Newt Gingrich 23,990 12.59% 1 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 18,997 9.97% 0 0
Blank 810 0.43% 0 0
Void 106 0.06% 0 0
Scattering 1 0.00% 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 2 3 95
Total: 190,515 100.00% 95 95 95

The 2012 New York Republican presidential primary took place on April 24, 2012.[6][7]

By county, Romney won a plurality in every county, and a majority in all but 6: Niagara, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, Orleans, Schuyler, Herkimer and Oswego.

Paul finished second in most counties. Santorum finished second in Otsego County. Gingrich finished second in two geographic areas: a cluster of counties in the Catskills and Hudson Valley (Orange, Rockland, Sullivan, and Westchester) and in most of the counties of Western New York (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Erie, Genesee, Niagara, and Wyoming), in addition to Herkimer and Oneida counties.[5] Gingrich's relative strength in Western New York, as well as in Herkimer, can be attributed to the continued popularity and efforts of Carl Paladino, who carried those counties in the previous gubernatorial election and campaigned on Gingrich's behalf. The majority of New York politicians had endorsed Romney while the primary election was still competitive.

General election

Candidate Ballot Access:

Write-In Candidate Access:

Results

2012 United States presidential election in New York
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama 4,337,622 61.25%
Working Families Barack Obama 148,119 2.09%
Total Barack Obama Joe Biden 4,485,741 63.35% 29
Republican Mitt Romney 2,228,060 31.46%
Conservative Mitt Romney 262,371 3.71%
Total Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 2,490,431 35.17% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 47,256 0.67% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 39,982 0.56% 0
Write-Ins Write-Ins 9,076 0.13% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 6,274 0.09% 0
Socialism and Liberation Peta Lindsay Yari Osorio 2,050 0.03% 0
Justice (Write-in) Rocky Anderson (Write-in) Luis J. Rodriguez 217 <0.01% 0
Freedom Socialist (Write-in) Stephen Durham Christina López 34 <0.01% 0
America's (Write-in) Tom Hoefling J.D. Ellis 34 <0.01% 0
Socialist Workers (Write-in) James Harris Maura DeLuca 27 <0.01% 0
Socialist Equality (Write-in) Jerry White Phyllis Scherrer 19 <0.01% 0
Twelve Visions (Write-in) Jill Reed Tom Cary 12 <0.01% 0
American Third Position (Write-in) Merlin Miller Virginia Abernethy 6 <0.01% 0
Totals 7,081,159 100.00% 29
Voter Turnout (Registered) 59.2%

Results by county

County Obama% Obama# Romney% Romney# Johnson% Johnson# Stein% Stein# Others% Others# Total
Bronx 91.45% 339,211 8.08% 29,967 0.16% 608 0.21% 774 0.10% 378 370,938
New York (Manhattan) 83.75% 502,674 14.92% 89,559 0.52% 3,104 0.64% 3,860 0.17% 1,094 600,291
Kings (Brooklyn) 82.02% 604,443 16.90% 124,551 0.34% 2,500 0.60% 4,411 0.15% 1,077 736,982
Queens 79.08% 470,732 19.92% 118,589 0.40% 2,375 0.41% 2,465 0.18% 1,084 595,245
Tompkins 68.68% 27,244 28.00% 11,107 1.00% 395 2.10% 834 0.23% 90 39,670
Albany 64.49% 87,556 33.19% 45,064 1.00% 1,361 0.91% 1,238 0.40% 548 135,767
Franklin 62.09% 9,894 36.02% 5,740 0.73% 116 0.67% 106 0.49% 78 15,934
Westchester 61.99% 240,785 36.84% 143,122 0.53% 2,042 0.42% 1,627 0.22% 871 388,447
Clinton 61.85% 18,961 36.26% 11,115 0.85% 260 0.63% 193 0.42% 127 30,656
Ulster 59.97% 47,752 37.37% 29,759 1.00% 768 1.19% 944 0.51% 403 79,626
Onondaga 59.72% 122,254 38.51% 78,831 0.83% 1,697 0.77% 1,584 0.17% 351 204,717
Essex 58.53% 9,784 39.76% 6,647 0.80% 134 0.64% 107 0.27% 45 16,717
Monroe 57.97% 193,501 39.95% 133,362 1.07% 3,572 0.63% 2,101 0.38% 1,277 333,813
St. Lawrence 57.41% 21,353 40.70% 15,138 0.74% 276 0.61% 227 0.53% 197 37,191
Erie 57.31% 237,356 40.97% 169,675 0.86% 3,562 0.70% 2,898 0.17% 704 414,195
Schenectady 56.74% 36,844 40.92% 26,568 1.07% 692 0.79% 514 0.48% 315 64,933
Columbia 55.69% 16,221 41.97% 12,225 1.03% 299 0.89% 259 0.43% 125 29,129
Rensselaer 55.02% 37,408 42.82% 29,113 1.11% 754 0.90% 612 0.15% 103 67,990
Cayuga 54.56% 17,007 43.16% 13,454 0.91% 285 0.78% 243 0.58% 180 31,169
Sullivan 53.73% 15,268 44.71% 12,705 0.69% 195 0.66% 188 0.21% 59 28,415
Seneca 53.48% 7,094 44.39% 5,889 0.83% 110 0.76% 101 0.54% 72 13,266
Cortland 53.41% 10,482 44.31% 8,695 0.95% 187 0.82% 161 0.50% 99 19,624
Nassau 53.28% 302,695 45.64% 259,308 0.53% 2,998 0.36% 2,068 0.19% 1,082 568,151
Dutchess 52.80% 65,312 45.29% 56,025 0.89% 1,105 0.63% 785 0.39% 478 123,705
Rockland 52.76% 65,657 46.10% 57,363 0.51% 631 0.38% 474 0.25% 317 124,442
Oswego 52.73% 23,515 44.81% 19,980 1.00% 447 0.85% 379 0.61% 270 44,591
Orange 52.13% 73,315 46.48% 65,367 0.75% 1,049 0.50% 700 0.14% 197 140,628
Broome 51.46% 41,970 46.15% 37,641 1.12% 915 0.89% 723 0.39% 316 81,565
Suffolk 51.17% 304,079 47.48% 282,131 0.66% 3,947 0.43% 2,528 0.27% 1,581 594,266
Richmond (Staten Island) 50.71% 78,181 48.14% 74,223 0.58% 899 0.34% 519 0.23% 358 154,180
Otsego 50.20% 12,117 47.48% 11,461 0.88% 212 0.99% 238 0.46% 111 24,139
Saratoga 50.19% 52,957 47.75% 50,382 1.09% 1,147 0.62% 651 0.35% 373 105,510
Warren 50.06% 14,806 47.73% 14,119 1.05% 312 0.74% 220 0.41% 121 29,578
Washington 49.89% 11,523 48.00% 11,085 0.96% 222 0.77% 177 0.38% 88 23,095
Niagara 49.42% 43,986 48.58% 43,240 0.97% 864 0.63% 560 0.41% 363 89,013
Madison 49.37% 13,871 48.49% 13,622 1.06% 297 0.85% 238 0.23% 66 28,094
Ontario 48.25% 23,087 49.78% 23,820 1.19% 571 0.61% 294 0.17% 81 47,853
Chemung 47.98% 16,797 50.31% 17,612 0.89% 310 0.43% 151 0.40% 140 35,010
Jefferson 47.89% 17,099 50.75% 18,122 0.76% 271 0.42% 151 0.18% 65 35,708
Yates 47.53% 4,488 50.82% 4,798 0.73% 69 0.71% 67 0.21% 20 9,442
Chenango 47.20% 9,116 50.29% 9,713 1.13% 218 0.81% 157 0.57% 110 19,314
Montgomery 46.70% 8,493 51.33% 9,334 0.89% 161 0.51% 93 0.58% 105 18,186
Oneida 46.68% 40,468 51.36% 44,530 0.94% 819 0.58% 502 0.44% 381 86,700
Schuyler 45.10% 3,674 52.55% 4,281 0.98% 80 0.92% 75 0.44% 36 8,146
Chautauqua 45.05% 23,812 52.92% 27,971 0.95% 504 0.61% 324 0.46% 241 52,852
Herkimer 45.02% 11,273 53.04% 13,282 1.03% 259 0.69% 172 0.22% 54 25,040
Lewis 44.90% 4,724 53.71% 5,651 0.77% 81 0.48% 51 0.14% 15 10,522
Delaware 44.55% 8,304 53.32% 9,938 0.91% 170 1.07% 199 0.14% 27 18,638
Wayne 44.30% 16,635 53.43% 20,060 1.13% 424 0.59% 222 0.55% 206 37,547
Putnam 44.00% 19,512 54.31% 24,083 0.90% 397 0.47% 209 0.32% 144 44,345
Livingston 43.72% 11,705 53.97% 14,448 1.19% 318 0.65% 175 0.46% 124 26,770
Greene 43.69% 9,030 54.06% 11,174 1.11% 233 0.68% 141 0.44% 90 20,668
Fulton 43.47% 8,607 54.62% 10,814 0.80% 159 0.56% 111 0.55% 108 19,799
Cattaraugus 42.49% 12,649 55.66% 16,569 0.92% 274 0.68% 201 0.25% 74 29,767
Tioga 41.36% 8,930 56.13% 12,117 1.11% 240 0.80% 172 0.60% 130 21,589
Schoharie 41.09% 5,427 56.54% 7,467 0.98% 129 0.82% 108 0.57% 76 13,207
Steuben 40.97% 15,787 56.98% 21,954 0.97% 373 0.60% 232 0.48% 185 38,531
Orleans 39.35% 5,787 58.44% 8,594 1.12% 165 0.55% 81 0.54% 79 14,706
Genesee 38.80% 9,601 59.03% 14,607 1.47% 363 0.46% 115 0.24% 60 24,746
Allegany 36.21% 6,139 61.29% 10,390 0.99% 168 0.96% 162 0.55% 94 16,953
Hamilton 36.13% 1,128 61.88% 1,932 0.90% 28 0.45% 14 0.64% 20 3,122
Wyoming 34.66% 5,661 63.35% 10,348 0.83% 135 0.59% 96 0.58% 95 16,335
Totals 63.35% 4,485,741 35.17% 2,490,431 0.67% 47,256 0.56% 39,984 0.25% 17,923 7,081,159

See full list of sources See full list of sources

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

As expected, New York gave a landslide win to Obama, with 4,485,877 votes, or 63.35% of the popular vote. 28.18% lead ahead of Romney.[8] It was one of only six states to swing in Obama's favor from 2008, when he won with a 26.85% margin.[9] New York has voted solidly for the Democratic candidate in every election since Michael Dukakis in 1988, which marked the end of its status as a swing state. This was the greatest ever percentage of the vote won by a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson won 68.56% of the vote in his 1964 44 state-landslide.

The politics of New York State are dominated by the heavily populated area of New York City, which Barack Obama won in a historic landslide, taking 81.19% of the vote and sweeping all 5 boroughs. Obama took 1,995,241 votes in New York City, to Mitt Romney's 436,889. No other presidential candidate of either party has ever received more than 80% of the vote in New York City. This was not only due to its majority liberal and extremely diverse population. His performance in New York City likely contributed to his improvement from 2008, which was unusual compared to the rest of the country where he underperformed from 2008 (particularly in areas like the Midwest and Rust Belt). He managed to flip Staten Island, which voted for John McCain in 2008, as well as improved his margins in all other boroughs except for Manhattan. This improved performance is likely attributable to Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29 and had devastating effects on the state, killing 44 people, destroying 250,000 vehicles and 300 homes, damaging 69,000 residential units,[10] and flooding of the New York City Subway, all tunnels within the city (except for the Lincoln Tunnel), many suburban communities.[11] Areas that weren't directly affected by the hurricane were indirectly effected by power outages and major disruption to data communication.[12] Staten Island was hit hardest, with its geographical position combined with weather patterns, causing a 16 feet-high storm tide at its peak, flooding major residential areas.[13] 23 of the 44 deaths from the hurricane were in Staten Island.[14] The federal government's powerful and coordinated response to the hurricane was praised by those on both sides of the isle, garnering Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg's endorsement,[3] as well as praise from Republican politicians like Chris Christie.[15] This – combined with the media's heavy criticism of Romney's support for a 40% budget cut to FEMA, which would grow to as much as 60% in the coming years – weakened Romney's performance amongst voters across city, including conservatives, especially in the borough of Staten Island.[16]

The advantage from Hurricane Sandy was also reflected in polls. Prior to the storm, nine nationwide polls listed in Real Clear Politics' database found Romney and Obama each leading in four and one tied. Seven national polls taken after the storm had shown Obama leading in three, four being tied, and Romney leading in none. In particular, a poll by Politico and George Washington University found Obama's lead increasing in the Northeast from 8 to 20% before and after the storm.[17]

Unlike many rural areas across the country, most notably in the Midwest, rural counties didn't swing especially hard against Obama this election. Most of the political landscape looked roughly the same, with the exception of Chautauqua County flipping red this election after supporting Obama by narrow margins in 2008. However, Obama tied with Romney for white voters (who make up a majority of upstate's population but a minority in New York City) according to New York Times exit polls this election, a significant decline from 2008 when he won white voters 52 to 46.[18] Discounting New York City's votes, Obama still would have carried New York State, albeit by a closer margin. Excluding New York City, Obama's vote total in the state was 2,490,636 to Romney's 2,053,607, giving Obama a 54.03%-44.54% win outside of NYC.

In terms of exit polls, Obama performed roughly as expected. He won both women and men 68 to 31 and 58 to 42, respectively, and won Black voters 94 to 5 and Hispanic voters 89 to 11. These ethnic groups collectively make up 54.6% of New York City's population, and thus hold great influence. Obama won all age groups, education levels, and income levels, though he did best amongst 18 to 29 year olds (72 to 25), those with no college degree (66 to 34), and those with an income under $30,000 (81 to 17), respectively. Obama not only won liberals and registered Democrats, but he also won moderates and independents 63 to 36 and 50 to 44 respectively – these groups make up 42% and 23% of the electorate respectively and were thus vital for Obama to win.

See also

References

  1. ^ "2012 General Election Returns" (PDF). NYS Board of Elections. February 6, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
  2. ^ "Opinion | A Big Storm Requires Big Government". The New York Times. 2012-10-29. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  3. ^ a b Hernandez, Raymond (2012-11-01). "Bloomberg Backs Obama, Citing Fallout From Storm". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  4. ^ "New York Democratic Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  5. ^ a b http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/Primary/RepublicanPresidentialPrimaryCounty.pdf
  6. ^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  7. ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  8. ^ "New York". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  9. ^ "New York - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  10. ^ "About Hurricane Sandy". www1.nyc.gov. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  11. ^ "Hurricane Sandy - New York". www.usgs.gov. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  12. ^ Troianovski, Anton (2012-11-01). "A Look inside Verizon's Flooded Communications Hub". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  13. ^ Gammon, Crystal (7 November 2012). "Why Hurricane Sandy Hit Staten Island So Hard". livescience.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  14. ^ Taylor, Alan. "Hurricane Sandy: Staten Island Survivors - The Atlantic". www.theatlantic.com. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  15. ^ "Chris Christie and Hurricane Sandy give Obama a timely boost". Los Angeles Times. 2012-11-01. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  16. ^ "Politics of FEMA: Mitt Romney Suggested Less Federal Involvement, Paul Ryan Budget Scrutinized". ABC News. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  17. ^ Cassidy, John. "How Much Did Hurricane Sandy Help Obama?". The New Yorker. Retrieved 2020-09-03.
  18. ^ "President Exit Polls". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-09-04.

External links

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