| Discovery[1][2] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Mount Lemmon Srvy. |
| Discovery site | Mount Lemmon Obs. |
| Discovery date | 5 September 2010 |
| Designations | |
| 2010 RF12 | |
| NEO · Apollo[1][3] | |
| Orbital characteristics[3] | |
| Epoch 2023-Feb-25 (JD 2460000.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 0 (MPC)[1] 2 (JPL)[3] | |
| Observation arc | 11.98 years |
| Aphelion | 1.261 AU |
| Perihelion | 0.86145 AU |
| 1.0611 AU | |
| Eccentricity | 0.18819 |
| 1.093 yr (399 d) | |
| 84.6° | |
| 0° 54m 9s / day | |
| Inclination | 0.88248° |
| 163.71° | |
| 2022-Nov-23[3] | |
| 267.39° | |
| Earth MOID | 0.00054 AU (81 thousand km; 0.21 LD) |
| Physical characteristics | |
Mean diameter | 7 m[4] 6–12 meters (CNEOS) |
| 28.4[1][3] | |
2010 RF12 is a very small asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79,000 kilometres (49,000 mi) above Antarctica.[5] The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with 2010 RX30.[1][6] Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth.[7][note 1] 2010 RF12 was rediscovered in August 2022,[8][1] and now has a 12 year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces,[3] there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.[4]
| Date | Impact probability |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2095-09-06 00:06 ± 00:20 | 1:10 | 0.00035 AU (52 thousand km)[3] | ±180 thousand km[9] |
Description
NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be 7 meters (23 feet) in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes.[4] 2010 RF12 will make many more close approaches to Earth.[3] Around 6 September 2095 it will pass 52000±180000 km from Earth.[3][9] When an asteroid roughly 7-meters in diameter impacts Earth, very little danger of harm arises from the impact; rather an impressive fireball is expected (estimated in the risk table as nearly 9 KT of energy release[4]) as the rock air bursts in the upper atmosphere and pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.[10] The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor (which was 440 KT equivalent energy).[11] The approach of 2096 is poorly known because it is dependent on the Earth approach/perturbations in September 2095.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2095-09-05 23:46 | 10 | 0.00035 AU (52 thousand km) | 0.0008 AU (120 thousand km)[12] | 0.00066 AU (99 thousand km) | 0.00087 AU (130,000 km)[13] | ±180 thousand km[14] |
| 2096-09-04 21:50 | 22000 | 0.84 AU (126 million km)[15] | 0.18 AU (27 million km)[16] | 0.36 AU (54 million km) | 0.19 AU (28 million km)[17] | ±414 million km[15] |
On 17 February 2059 the asteroid will pass 3.5 million km from Earth[3] and reach about apparent magnitude 22.6 by late February. On 10 September 1915 it passed 463000±30000 km from Earth.[3]
See also
- 2010 RX30, a similar-sized asteroid that passed Earth the same day
- 2000 SG344, another near-Earth asteroid (may be Saturn V stage IV rocket booster)
- 2006 JY26
- Asteroid impact prediction
- List of asteroid close approaches to Earth, for other close approaches
- Earth-grazing fireball
- Meteoroid
Notes
- ^ Many small and harmless asteroids (less than ~10 meters in diameter) impact Earth every year but very few are discovered and predicted, see Asteroid impact prediction.
References
- ^ a b c d e f "2010 RF12". Minor Planet Center$. 8 September 2010. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
- ^ "MPEC 2010-R41 : 2010 RF12". IAU Minor Planet Center. 5 September 2010. Retrieved 17 April 2014. (K10R12F)
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2010 RF12)" (2022-08-24 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
- ^ a b c d e "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2010 RF12". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 22 January 2017. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
- ^ "Harvard scientists keep an eye on wayward asteroids". Boston Globe Media Partners. 8 September 2010. Archived from the original on 9 September 2010. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
- ^ "Second Asteroid to Buzz Earth Later Today". National Geographic. 8 September 2010. Archived from the original on 11 September 2010. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
- ^ "Sentry Risk Table". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 11 September 2010. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
- ^ "MPEC 2022-S77 : 2010 RF12". IAU Minor Planet Center. 19 September 2022. Retrieved 19 September 2022.
- ^ a b "Horizons Batch for 2095-09-06 00:06 Earth Approach". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 23 December 2022. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = 180405 for 2095-Sep-06 00:06.)
- ^ How a Near-Earth Object Impact Might Affect Society, 9 January 2003, Clark R. Chapman, SwRI, Boulder CO USA
- ^ "Five Years after the Chelyabinsk Meteor: NASA Leads Efforts in Planetary Defense". NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office. Archived from the original on 2 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
- ^ "2010RF12 Ephemerides for 5−6 September 2095". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 6 July 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2020. (NEODyS Close Approach Table))
- ^ "Find_Orb for 2095-09-06". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 6 July 2022. Retrieved 6 July 2022.
- ^ "Horizons Batch for 2095-09-05 23:46 Virtual Impactor Time". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 12 June 2022. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = 177649 for 2095-Sep-05 23:46.)
- ^ a b "Horizons Batch for 2096-09-04 21:50 Virtual Impactor Time". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 7 July 2022. Retrieved 7 July 2022.
- ^ "2010RF12 Ephemerides for 4−5 September 2096". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
- ^ "Find_Orb for 2096-09-05". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
External links
- Risk corridor over Southern Hemisphere
- 2010 RF12: A second asteroid will buzz the Earth today, csmonitor.com, September 8, 2010
- Early warning for close approaches of two house-sized asteroids, The Planetary Society, September 8, 2010
- 2010 RF12 at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
- 2010 RF12 at ESA–space situational awareness
- 2010 RF12 at the JPL Small-Body Database
This page was last edited on 25 December 2023, at 00:51