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2004 United States presidential election in Michigan

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2004 United States presidential election in Michigan

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout64.7% Increase[1]
 
John F. Kerry.jpg
George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 17 0
Popular vote 2,479,183 2,313,746
Percentage 51.23% 47.81%

Michigan Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Michigan was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state.

Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, 2004 also marked the first time since 1976 in which the state was not carried by the candidate who led in the overall popular vote. As of 2020, this is the most recent election in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
  6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
  8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Leans Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,960,010.[4] Kerry raised $2,496,203.[5]

Advertising and visits

In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,[6] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.[7]

Analysis

Kerry won Michigan with 51.2% and by a margin of 3.4%. While a reduced margin with respect to Gore's in 2000, the state trended Democratic in 2004 relative to the nation.[8] Bush won a majority of the state's counties and congressional districts, holding Kerry to only 15 counties (whereas Gore had carried 24). But he underperformed previous Republicans in two large suburban counties that had recently been Republican strongholds in the state, Oakland and Macomb Counties. Kerry narrowly held onto Oakland County, which had voted Republican in every election from 1940 through 1992 save 1964, and had voted to re-elect Bill Clinton in 1996 by only 4.3%. Bush did flip Macomb County, which Gore had become the second Democrat to carry after a twenty-year run of voting Republican from 1972 through 1992, but he carried it by only 1.4%, making it still slightly bluer than the nation. Meanwhile, Kerry maintained the traditional Democratic domination of Wayne County, winning about the same 69% vote share in it that Gore had won in 2000. Michigan had voted Republican in every election from 1972 through 1988, in all of which Oakland and Macomb had given the Republican a healthy margin.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Michigan
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 2,479,183 51.2% 17
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,313,746 47.8% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 24,035 0.5% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 10,552 0.2% 0
Green David Cobb 5,325 0.1% 0
US Taxpayers Michael Peroutka 4,980 0.1% 0
Natural Law Walt Brown 1,431 0.0% 0
Totals 4,839,252 100.00% 17
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) 64.2%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry Bush Others Total votes
% # % # % #
Alcona 43.96% 2,871 55.00% 3,592 1.04% 68 6,531
Alger 50.26% 2,395 48.65% 2,318 1.09% 52 4,765
Allegan 35.90% 19,355 63.11% 34,022 0.98% 530 53,907
Alpena 48.70% 7,407 50.39% 7,665 0.91% 139 15,211
Antrim 37.24% 5,072 61.52% 8,379 1.23% 168 13,619
Arenac 49.61% 4,076 49.55% 4,071 0.84% 69 8,216
Baraga 45.06% 1,660 53.66% 1,977 1.28% 47 3,684
Barry 37.37% 11,312 61.57% 18,638 1.06% 322 30,272
Bay 54.42% 31,049 44.60% 25,448 0.98% 562 57,059
Benzie 44.83% 4,383 54.04% 5,284 1.14% 111 9,778
Berrien 43.99% 32,846 55.01% 41,076 1.00% 749 74,671
Branch 38.98% 7,004 60.02% 10,784 1.00% 179 17,967
Calhoun 47.70% 29,891 51.21% 32,093 1.09% 683 62,667
Cass 42.02% 9,537 57.12% 12,964 0.86% 196 22,697
Charlevoix 40.52% 5,729 58.09% 8,214 1.39% 196 14,139
Cheboygan 42.78% 5,941 56.15% 7,798 1.07% 148 13,887
Chippewa 43.69% 7,203 55.33% 9,122 0.99% 163 16,488
Clare 49.09% 6,984 49.82% 7,088 1.08% 154 14,226
Clinton 40.95% 15,483 58.16% 21,989 0.89% 335 37,807
Crawford 43.21% 3,126 55.52% 4,017 1.27% 92 7,235
Delta 48.76% 9,381 50.32% 9,680 0.92% 177 19,238
Dickinson 41.70% 5,650 57.08% 7,734 1.22% 165 13,549
Eaton 45.58% 25,411 53.41% 29,781 1.01% 563 55,755
Emmet 39.41% 6,846 59.48% 10,332 1.12% 194 17,372
Genesee 60.03% 128,334 39.23% 83,870 0.73% 1,571 213,775
Gladwin 47.95% 6,343 51.18% 6,770 0.86% 114 13,227
Gogebic 52.31% 4,421 46.56% 3,935 1.14% 96 8,452
Grand Traverse 39.52% 18,256 59.42% 27,446 1.06% 489 46,191
Gratiot 42.45% 7,377 56.59% 9,834 0.97% 168 17,379
Hillsdale 35.23% 7,123 63.34% 12,804 1.43% 289 20,216
Houghton 42.46% 6,731 56.08% 8,889 1.46% 231 15,851
Huron 43.68% 7,629 55.37% 9,671 0.95% 166 17,466
Ingham 57.78% 76,877 41.14% 54,734 1.08% 1,442 133,053
Ionia 38.55% 10,647 60.18% 16,621 1.27% 350 27,618
Iosco 46.82% 6,557 52.13% 7,301 1.06% 148 14,006
Iron 49.38% 3,215 49.52% 3,224 1.11% 72 6,511
Isabella 50.57% 12,334 48.19% 11,754 1.24% 302 24,390
Jackson 43.21% 31,025 55.75% 40,029 1.03% 741 71,795
Kalamazoo 51.31% 61,462 47.71% 57,147 0.98% 1,174 119,783
Kalkaska 38.05% 3,189 60.67% 5,084 1.28% 107 8,380
Kent 40.19% 116,909 58.85% 171,201 0.96% 2,781 290,891
Keweenaw 43.78% 630 54.27% 781 1.95% 28 1,439
Lake 50.99% 2,675 47.71% 2,503 1.30% 68 5,246
Lapeer 40.97% 18,086 57.89% 25,556 1.14% 505 44,147
Leelanau 43.46% 6,048 55.57% 7,733 0.98% 136 13,917
Lenawee 44.22% 20,787 54.61% 25,675 1.17% 550 47,012
Livingston 36.26% 33,991 62.79% 58,860 0.95% 891 93,742
Luce 36.94% 1,045 61.82% 1,749 1.24% 35 2,829
Mackinac 42.72% 2,819 56.16% 3,706 1.12% 74 6,599
Macomb 48.75% 196,160 50.24% 202,166 1.01% 4,084 402,410
Manistee 49.23% 6,272 49.41% 6,295 1.36% 173 12,740
Marquette 53.60% 17,412 45.22% 14,690 1.19% 386 32,488
Mason 43.34% 6,333 55.60% 8,124 1.05% 154 14,611
Mecosta 43.97% 7,730 55.23% 9,710 0.80% 141 17,581
Menominee 46.64% 5,326 52.04% 5,942 1.32% 151 11,419
Midland 42.41% 18,355 56.31% 24,369 1.27% 551 43,275
Missaukee 31.25% 2,319 68.12% 5,055 0.63% 47 7,421
Monroe 48.68% 36,089 50.54% 37,470 0.77% 573 74,132
Montcalm 42.91% 11,471 55.99% 14,968 1.10% 295 26,734
Montmorency 39.48% 2,196 59.32% 3,300 1.20% 67 5,563
Muskegon 55.14% 44,282 43.96% 35,302 0.91% 729 80,313
Newaygo 39.60% 9,057 59.49% 13,608 0.91% 208 22,873
Oakland 49.75% 319,387 49.32% 316,633 0.93% 5,957 641,977
Oceana 44.25% 5,441 54.30% 6,677 1.46% 179 12,297
Ogemaw 48.30% 5,215 50.52% 5,454 1.18% 127 10,796
Ontonagon 44.44% 1,863 53.96% 2,262 1.60% 67 4,192
Osceola 39.93% 4,467 58.98% 6,599 1.09% 122 11,188
Oscoda 40.64% 1,792 58.29% 2,570 1.07% 47 4,409
Otsego 37.98% 4,674 60.70% 7,470 1.32% 163 12,307
Ottawa 27.64% 35,552 71.55% 92,048 0.81% 1,043 128,643
Presque Isle 45.66% 3,432 52.98% 3,982 1.36% 102 7,516
Roscommon 47.43% 6,810 51.28% 7,364 1.29% 185 14,359
Saginaw 53.37% 54,887 45.86% 47,165 0.78% 800 102,852
St. Clair 45.36% 36,174 53.60% 42,740 1.04% 829 79,743
St. Joseph 38.23% 9,648 60.78% 15,340 0.99% 251 25,239
Sanilac 37.97% 7,883 60.84% 12,632 1.19% 248 20,763
Schoolcraft 48.12% 2,137 51.05% 2,267 0.83% 37 4,441
Shiawassee 46.06% 16,881 52.95% 19,407 0.99% 363 36,651 b
Tuscola 44.57% 12,631 54.31% 15,389 1.12% 318 28,338
Van Buren 47.26% 16,151 51.60% 17,634 1.14% 389 34,174
Washtenaw 63.46% 109,953 35.47% 61,455 1.07% 1,856 173,264
Wayne 69.39% 600,047 29.81% 257,750 0.80% 6,931 864,728
Wexford 39.80% 6,034 59.14% 8,966 1.06% 160 15,160

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 53% 46% Bart Stupak
2nd 60% 39% Peter Hoekstra
3rd 59% 40% Vern Ehlers
4th 55% 44% Dave Camp
5th 41% 59% Dale Kildee
6th 53% 46% Fred Upton
7th 54% 45% Nick Smith
Joe Schwarz
8th 54% 45% Mike Rogers
9th 51% 49% Joe Knollenberg
10th 57% 43% Candice Miller
11th 53% 47% Thaddeus McCotter
12th 39% 61% Sander Levin
13th 19% 81% Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
14th 17% 83% John Conyers Jr.
15th 38% 62% John Dingell

Electors

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. Carol Vining Moore
  2. Margaret Robinson
  3. Ida I. DeHaas
  4. Marcela L. Ort
  5. Vickie Sue Price
  6. Paul Todd
  7. Leonard Smigielski
  8. Bruce McAttee
  9. Stanley W. Harris
  10. Yvonne Williams
  11. Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
  12. Charley Jackson
  13. Joan Robinson Cheeks
  14. Roger Short
  15. Harless Scott
  16. Richard Shoemaker
  17. Michael Pitt

References

  1. ^ http://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-1633_8722-29616--,00.html
  2. ^ [1]
  3. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=26
  4. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  5. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  6. ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  7. ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/MI/
  8. ^ Leip, Dave (September 17, 2020). "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  9. ^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
This page was last edited on 3 May 2021, at 07:28
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