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2004 United States presidential election in Illinois

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States presidential election in Illinois, 2004

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
 
John F. Kerry.jpg
George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 21 0
Popular vote 2,891,550 2,345,946
Percentage 54.82% 44.48%

Illinois presidential election result by county, 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Illinois took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Illinois was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 10.3 percentage point margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. A reliable blue state that no Republican has won since 1988, voted for Democratic Senator John Kerry in 2004 with almost 55 percent of the vote.

Kerry's victory in Illinois was primarily due to carrying seventy percent of the vote in the Chicago area's Cook County, where about 43 percent of Illinois' population resides. Amongst the remaining 57 percent of the population, President George W. Bush won 54.6 percent (1,749,203 votes) to 45.3 percent (1,452,265 votes). President Bush was victorious in Chicago's collar counties, although the results in those counties were narrower than his victories downstate. As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last presidential election that a Democrat failed to carry any of Chicago's collar counties.[1]

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Transcription

Contents

Primaries

  • Illinois Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll. Out of the 12 polls taken, Kerry won 9 of them with 52% or higher. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 54% to Bush with 41%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $6,892,187.[4] Kerry raised $7,100,400.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election season because it was expected not to be competitive and Kerry had a solid lead in the state.[6][7]

Analysis

Illinois has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992, all by fairly comfortable margins. The blue trend in the “Land of Lincoln” in presidential elections can be largely attributed to Cook County which contains heavily Democratic Chicago and makes up about 41.2 percent of the state's total population.[8] Additionally, the historically Republican "collar counties" near Chicago have become friendlier to Democrats at the national level. Kerry also performed well in St. Clair County home of East St. Louis. Kerry also performed well in Champaign, Aurora, and Carbondale.

As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last election in which DeKalb County, Winnebago County, Will County, Kane County, DuPage County, and Lake County voted for a Republican presidential candidate.[1]

Results

United States presidential election in Illinois, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Forbes Kerry 2,891,550 54.82% 21
Republican George Walker Bush (Incumbent) 2,345,946 44.48% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 32,442 0.62% 0
Independent write-ins 4,384 0.08% 0
Totals 5,274,322 100.00% 21
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 56.0%

Results by county

County John Forbes Kerry
Democratic
George Walker Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 10,511 33.39% 20,834 66.19% 132 0.42% -10,323 -32.80% 31,477
Alexander 2,016 52.05% 1,831 47.28% 26 0.67% 185 4.78% 3,873
Bond 3,228 43.81% 4,068 55.20% 73 0.99% -840 -11.40% 7,369
Boone 8,286 42.40% 11,132 56.97% 123 0.63% -2,846 -14.56% 19,541
Brown 895 34.62% 1,679 64.95% 11 0.43% -784 -30.33% 2,585
Bureau 7,961 44.47% 9,822 54.87% 119 0.66% -1,861 -10.40% 17,902
Calhoun 1,367 50.52% 1,317 48.67% 22 0.81% 50 1.85% 2,706
Carroll 3,537 43.48% 4,534 55.73% 64 0.79% -997 -12.26% 8,135
Cass 2,492 43.72% 3,163 55.49% 45 0.79% -671 -11.77% 5,700
Champaign 41,524 50.37% 39,896 48.40% 1,014 1.23% 1,628 1.97% 82,434
Christian 6,112 40.03% 9,044 59.24% 111 0.73% -2,932 -19.20% 15,267
Clark 2,877 35.93% 5,082 63.47% 48 0.60% -2,205 -27.54% 8,007
Clay 2,101 32.06% 4,416 67.38% 37 0.56% -2,315 -35.32% 6,554
Clinton 6,797 39.68% 10,219 59.65% 115 0.67% -3,422 -19.98% 17,131
Coles 9,566 41.99% 13,015 57.13% 199 0.87% -3,449 -15.14% 22,780
Cook 1,439,724 70.25% 597,405 29.15% 12,305 0.60% 842,319 41.10% 2,049,434
Crawford 3,194 34.23% 6,083 65.18% 55 0.59% -2,889 -30.96% 9,332
Cumberland 1,862 34.38% 3,497 64.57% 57 1.05% -1,635 -30.19% 5,416
DeKalb 19,263 47.25% 21,095 51.74% 410 1.01% -1,832 -4.49% 40,768
DeWitt 2,836 36.37% 4,920 63.09% 42 0.54% -2,084 -26.72% 7,798
Douglas 2,767 32.40% 5,702 66.77% 71 0.83% -2,935 -34.37% 8,540
DuPage 180,097 44.75% 218,902 54.39% 3,447 0.86% -38,805 -9.64% 402,446
Edgar 3,093 36.69% 5,258 62.38% 78 0.93% -2,165 -25.69% 8,429
Edwards 930 27.65% 2,412 71.70% 22 0.65% -1,482 -44.05% 3,364
Effingham 4,388 26.96% 11,774 72.33% 116 0.71% -7,386 -45.37% 16,278
Fayette 3,571 37.40% 5,880 61.58% 98 1.03% -2,309 -24.18% 9,549
Ford 1,912 29.51% 4,511 69.62% 56 0.86% -2,599 -40.11% 6,479
Franklin 8,816 45.56% 10,388 53.68% 148 0.76% -1,572 -8.12% 19,352
Fulton 9,080 53.30% 7,818 45.89% 137 0.80% 1,262 7.41% 17,035
Gallatin 1,573 48.78% 1,619 50.20% 33 1.02% -46 -1.43% 3,225
Greene 2,457 40.49% 3,559 58.65% 52 0.86% -1,102 -18.16% 6,068
Grundy 8,463 42.68% 11,198 56.47% 170 0.86% -2,735 -13.79% 19,831
Hamilton 1,814 40.19% 2,653 58.77% 47 1.04% -839 -18.59% 4,514
Hancock 3,975 40.16% 5,837 58.97% 87 0.88% -1,862 -18.81% 9,899
Hardin 923 37.87% 1,501 61.59% 13 0.53% -578 -23.72% 2,437
Henderson 2,269 54.64% 1,857 44.71% 27 0.65% 412 9.92% 4,153
Henry 11,877 47.05% 13,212 52.34% 152 0.60% -1,335 -5.29% 25,241
Iroquois 3,832 27.70% 9,914 71.66% 89 0.64% -6,082 -43.96% 13,835
Jackson 14,300 55.37% 11,190 43.33% 336 1.30% 3,110 12.04% 25,826
Jasper 1,781 33.38% 3,529 66.14% 26 0.49% -1,748 -32.76% 5,336
Jefferson 6,713 39.61% 10,160 59.95% 75 0.44% -3,447 -20.34% 16,948
Jersey 4,597 45.35% 5,435 53.62% 105 1.04% -838 -8.27% 10,137
Jo Daviess 5,311 45.85% 6,174 53.30% 99 0.85% -863 -7.45% 11,584
Johnson 1,813 30.91% 3,997 68.15% 55 0.94% -2,184 -37.24% 5,865
Kane 75,922 44.21% 94,359 54.95% 1,434 0.84% -18,437 -10.74% 171,715
Kankakee 20,003 44.42% 24,739 54.93% 294 0.65% -4,736 -10.52% 45,036
Kendall 12,374 38.19% 19,774 61.03% 254 0.78% -7,400 -22.84% 32,402
Knox 13,403 54.25% 11,111 44.97% 194 0.79% 2,292 9.28% 24,708
Lake 134,352 48.80% 139,081 50.52% 1,862 0.68% -4,729 -1.72% 275,295
LaSalle 24,263 47.83% 26,101 51.45% 365 0.72% -1,838 -3.62% 50,729
Lawrence 2,518 37.42% 4,162 61.85% 49 0.73% -1,644 -24.43% 6,729
Lee 6,416 40.41% 9,307 58.62% 153 0.96% -2,891 -18.21% 15,876
Livingston 5,632 35.11% 10,316 64.32% 91 0.57% -4,684 -29.20% 16,039
Logan 4,273 31.73% 9,112 67.66% 82 0.61% -4,839 -35.93% 13,467
Macon 23,341 45.11% 28,118 54.34% 287 0.55% -4,777 -9.23% 51,746
Macoupin 11,193 49.12% 11,413 50.09% 179 0.79% -220 -0.97% 22,785
Madison 63,399 51.26% 59,384 48.02% 895 0.72% 4,015 3.25% 123,678
Marion 7,694 44.67% 9,413 54.65% 117 0.68% -1,719 -9.98% 17,224
Marshall 2,806 42.62% 3,734 56.71% 44 0.67% -928 -14.09% 6,584
Mason 3,215 44.76% 3,907 54.39% 61 0.85% -692 -9.63% 7,183
Massac 2,805 37.78% 4,578 61.66% 41 0.55% -1,773 -23.88% 7,424
McDonough 7,119 47.69% 7,656 51.28% 154 1.03% -537 -3.60% 14,929
McHenry 50,330 39.34% 76,412 59.72% 1,206 0.94% -26,082 -20.38% 127,948
McLean 29,877 41.72% 41,276 57.63% 467 0.65% -11,399 -15.92% 71,620
Menard 2,137 32.51% 4,408 67.05% 29 0.44% -2,271 -34.55% 6,574
Mercer 4,512 50.28% 4,405 49.09% 57 0.64% 107 1.19% 8,974
Monroe 6,788 41.47% 9,468 57.84% 114 0.70% -2,680 -16.37% 16,370
Montgomery 5,979 46.24% 6,851 52.99% 100 0.77% -872 -6.74% 12,930
Morgan 5,650 37.22% 9,392 61.87% 138 0.91% -3,742 -24.65% 15,180
Moultrie 2,388 36.93% 4,028 62.30% 50 0.77% -1,640 -25.36% 6,466
Ogle 9,018 37.43% 14,918 61.92% 155 0.64% -5,900 -24.49% 24,091
Peoria 41,121 49.68% 41,051 49.60% 599 0.72% 70 0.08% 82,771
Perry 4,770 45.76% 5,589 53.61% 66 0.63% -819 -7.86% 10,425
Piatt 3,124 36.38% 5,392 62.80% 70 0.82% -2,268 -26.42% 8,586
Pike 2,849 35.70% 5,032 63.06% 99 1.24% -2,183 -27.36% 7,980
Pope 918 37.68% 1,500 61.58% 18 0.74% -582 -23.89% 2,436
Pulaski 1,372 44.14% 1,720 55.34% 16 0.51% -348 -11.20% 3,108
Putnam 1,704 50.84% 1,623 48.42% 25 0.75% 81 2.42% 3,352
Randolph 6,771 45.27% 8,076 54.00% 109 0.73% -1,305 -8.73% 14,956
Richland 2,529 32.64% 5,153 66.50% 67 0.86% -2,624 -33.86% 7,749
Rock Island 39,880 56.99% 29,663 42.39% 429 0.61% 10,217 14.60% 69,972
Saline 4,697 39.76% 7,057 59.73% 60 0.51% -2,360 -19.98% 11,814
Sangamon 38,630 40.50% 55,904 58.61% 841 0.88% -17,274 -18.11% 95,375
Schuyler 1,594 39.54% 2,403 59.61% 34 0.84% -809 -20.07% 4,031
Scott 927 35.17% 1,696 64.34% 13 0.49% -769 -29.17% 2,636
Shelby 3,744 35.40% 6,753 63.85% 80 0.76% -3,009 -28.45% 10,577
St. Clair 62,410 55.14% 50,203 44.35% 576 0.51% 12,207 10.78% 113,189
Stark 1,189 38.84% 1,841 60.14% 31 1.01% -652 -21.30% 3,061
Stephenson 8,913 41.81% 12,212 57.28% 195 0.91% -3,299 -15.47% 21,320
Tazewell 25,814 41.41% 36,058 57.84% 466 0.75% -10,244 -16.43% 62,338
Union 3,735 40.96% 5,333 58.48% 51 0.56% -1,598 -17.52% 9,119
Vermilion 14,726 43.68% 18,731 55.56% 257 0.76% -4,005 -11.88% 33,714
Wabash 1,752 29.17% 4,212 70.13% 42 0.70% -2,460 -40.96% 6,006
Warren 3,938 46.56% 4,474 52.90% 45 0.53% -536 -6.34% 8,457
Washington 2,986 36.85% 5,072 62.59% 46 0.57% -2,086 -25.74% 8,104
Wayne 2,139 25.81% 6,102 73.63% 46 0.56% -3,963 -47.82% 8,287
White 3,071 37.00% 5,180 62.40% 50 0.60% -2,109 -25.41% 8,301
Whiteside 13,723 51.07% 12,959 48.22% 191 0.71% 764 2.84% 26,873
Will 115,625 46.92% 129,098 52.39% 1,686 0.68% -13,473 -5.47% 246,409
Williamson 11,685 39.00% 18,086 60.37% 189 0.63% -6,401 -21.37% 29,960
Winnebago 59,740 49.20% 60,782 50.06% 903 0.74% -1,042 -0.86% 121,425
Woodford 6,005 31.94% 12,698 67.54% 99 0.53% -6,693 -35.60% 18,802
Totals 2,891,989 54.82% 2,346,608 44.48% 36,818 0.70% 545,381 10.34% 5,275,415

By congressional district

Kerry won ten of nineteen congressional districts.[9]

District Kerry Bush Representative
1st 83% 17% Bobby Rush
2nd 84% 16% Jesse Jackson Jr.
3rd 59% 41% Bill Lipinski
Dan Lipinski
4th 79% 21% Luis Gutierrez
5th 67% 33% Rahm Emanuel
6th 47% 53% Henry Hyde
7th 83% 17% Danny K. Davis
8th 44% 56% Phil Crane
Melissa Bean
9th 68% 32% Jan Schakowsky
10th 53% 47% Mark Kirk
11th 46% 53% Jerry Weller
12th 52% 48% Jerry Costello
13th 45% 55% Judy Biggert
14th 44% 55% Dennis Hastert
15th 41% 59% Timothy V. Johnson
16th 44% 55% Donald Manzullo
17th 51% 48% Lane Evans
18th 42% 58% Ray LaHood
19th 39% 61% John Shimkus

Electors

Technically the voters of Illinois cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Illinois is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Illinois. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry and Edwards:[10]

  1. Constance A. Howard
  2. Carrie Austin
  3. Shirley R. Madigan
  4. Tony Munoz
  5. James DeLeo
  6. Joan Brennan
  7. Vera Davis
  8. Linda Pasternak
  9. William Marovitz
  10. Dan Pierce
  11. Debbie Halvorson
  12. Molly McKenzie
  13. Beth Ann May
  14. Mary Lou Kearns
  15. Lynn Foster
  16. John Nelson
  17. Mary Boland
  18. Shirley McCombs
  19. Jerry Sinclair
  20. Barbara Flynn Currie
  21. John Daley

References

  1. ^ a b Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  2. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[permanent dead link]
  3. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=17
  4. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  5. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. ^ "Cook County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau". Retrieved 2008-12-13.
  9. ^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  10. ^ https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/
This page was last edited on 10 October 2019, at 11:07
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