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(410777) 2009 FD

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(410777) 2009 FD
2009 FD.png
Arecibo Observatory radar images of 2009 FD
Discovery [1]
Discovered bySpacewatch
Discovery siteKitt Peak National Obs.
Discovery date24 February 2009
Designations
MPC designation(410777) 2009 FD
2009 FD
Apollo · NEO · PHA[1][2]
Orbital characteristics[1]
Epoch 3 July 2013 (JD 2456476.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0
Observation arc6.77 yr (2,471 days)
Aphelion1.7361 AU
Perihelion0.5896 AU
1.1629 AU
Eccentricity0.4929
1.25 yr (458 days)
98.579°
0° 47m 9.6s / day
Inclination3.1366°
9.5523°
281.24°
Known satellites1[3]
Earth MOID0.0025 AU · 1 LD
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter
0.113 km (calculated)[4]
0.150 km[a]
0.472 km[5]
Primary: 120–180 m
Secondary: 60–120 m[6]
Mass8.3×1010 kg (assumed)[7]
2.5 h (at least)[a]
4.0 h[8]
5.87±0.02 h[9]
6.22±0.41 h[10]
0.01[5]
0.20 (assumed)[4]
C[11] · S (assumed)[4]
22.1[1][4]

(410777) 2009 FD is a carbonaceous sub-kilometer asteroid and binary system,[6][3] classified as near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, discovered on 24 February 2009, by astronomers of the Spacewatch program at Kitt Peak National Observatory near Tucson, Arizona, in the United States.[2]

Until 2019, the asteroid's orbit placed it at risk of a possible future collision with Earth in 2185. It had the third highest cumulative impact threat of all known asteroids on the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale based on its estimated diameter of 160 meters, kinetic yield, impact probability, and time interval.[12] Observations taken in 2019 extended the observation arc by four years and showed a detection of the Yarkovsky effect, which ruled out the 2185 impact.[13]

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Contents

Discovery

2009 FD was initially announced as discovered on 16 March 2009 by La Sagra Sky Survey.[14] Because there were previous observations found in images taken by the Spacewatch survey some 3 weeks prior, on 24 February 2009, the Minor Planet Center assigned the discovery credit to Spacewatch under the discovery assignment rules.[15][2] 2009 FD made a close pass to Earth on 27 March 2009 at a distance of 0.004172 AU (624,100 km; 387,800 mi)[16][17] and another on 24 October 2010 at 0.0702 AU.[16] 2009 FD was recovered at apparent magnitude 23[b] on 30 November 2013 by Cerro Paranal Observatory,[2] several months before the close approach of April 2014 when it passed 0.1 AU from Earth.[16] It brightened to roughly apparent magnitude 19.3 around mid-March 2014.[18] One radar Doppler observation of 2009 FD was made in 2014.[1] The October–November 2015 Earth approach will be studied by the Goldstone Deep Space Network.[19]

Binary

NASA's Near Earth Program originally estimated its size to be 130 metres in diameter based on an assumed albedo of 0.15.[20] This gave it an estimated mass of around 2,800,000 tonnes.[20] But work by Amy Mainzer using NEOWISE data in 2014 showed that it could be as large as 472 metres with an albedo as low as 0.01.[1][5] Because 2009 FD (K09F00D) was only detected in two (W1 + W2) of the four wavelengths the suspected NEOWISE diameter is more of an upper limit.[5] Radar observations in 2015 showed it to be a binary asteroid.[6] The primary is 120–180 meters in diameter and the secondary is 60–120 meters in diameter.[6]

Future approaches

The JPL Small-Body Database shows that 2009 FD will make two very close approaches in the late 22nd century, with the approach of 29 March 2185 currently having a 1 in 710 chance of impacting Earth.[7] The nominal 2185 Earth approach distance is 0.009 AU (1,300,000 km; 840,000 mi).[16] Orbit determination for 2190 is complicated by the 2185 close approach.[16] The precise distance that it will pass from Earth and the Moon on 29 March 2185 will determine the 30 March 2190 distance. 2009 FD should pass closer to the Moon than Earth on 29 March 2185.[16] An impact by 2009 FD would cause severe devastation to a large region or tsunamis of significant size.[21]

Past Earth-impact estimates

In January 2011, near-Earth asteroid 2009 FD (with observations through 7 December 2010) was listed on the JPL Sentry Risk Table with a 1 in 435 chance of impacting Earth on 29 March 2185.[20] In 2014 (with observations through 5 February 2014 creating an observation arc of 1807 days) the potential 2185 impact was ruled out.[22] Using the 2014 observations, the Yarkovsky effect has become more significant than the position uncertainties.[23][11][24] The Yarkovsky effect has resulted in the 2185 virtual impactor returning. While 2009 FD was estimated to be 470 meters in diameter, it was rated −0.40 on the Palermo Scale, placing it higher on the Sentry Risk Table than any other known object at the time.[25]

On 14 June 2019, Alessio Del Vigna and colleagues published a new analysis, based on astrometry taken in 2019. Using both JPL's Sentry as well as NEODyS's CLOMON-2 system, the new data allowed a 4-sigma detection of the Yarkovsky effect at (+3.6±0.9)×10−3 AU/Myr. The 2019 observations extended the observation arc from six years to ten years. This ruled out the 2185 impact possibility, leaving the potential impact in 2190 as the only theoretically possible impact until 2250, at a very low probability of 1 in 100 million.[13]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Naidu, S. (2015) from observations taken in November 2015: Per private communication with the LCDB. Rotation period of at least 2.5 hours. Diameter estimate of 0.150 kilometers. Summary figures for (410777) at the LCDB
  2. ^ At an apparent magnitude of 23, 2009 FD was roughly 4 million times fainter than can be seen with the naked eye.
    Math:

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: 410777 (2009 FD)" (2015-12-01 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 30 January 2018.
  2. ^ a b c d "410777 (2009 FD)". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 30 January 2018.
  3. ^ a b Johnston, Wm. Robert (27 November 2015). "Asteroids with Satellites Database – (410777) 2009 FD". Johnston's Archive. Retrieved 30 January 2018.
  4. ^ a b c d "LCDB Data for (410777)". Asteroid Lightcurve Database (LCDB). Retrieved 30 January 2018.
  5. ^ a b c d Mainzer, A.; Bauer, J.; Grav, T.; Masiero, J.; Cutri, R. M.; Wright, E.; et al. (April 2014). "The Population of Tiny Near-Earth Objects Observed by NEOWISE". The Astrophysical Journal. 784 (2): 27. arXiv:1310.2980. Bibcode:2014ApJ...784..110M. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/784/2/110. (listed as K09F00D)
  6. ^ a b c d "(410777) 2009 FD". Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams. 2015-11-19. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04. Retrieved 2017-07-09.
  7. ^ a b "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2009 FD". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on January 18, 2016. Retrieved May 1, 2014.
  8. ^ Behrend, Raoul. "Asteroids and comets rotation curves – (410777) 2009 FD". Geneva Observatory. Retrieved 30 January 2018.
  9. ^ Carbognani, Albino (January 2011). "Lightcurves and Periods of Eighteen NEAs and MBAs". The Minor Planet Bulletin. 38 (1): 57–63. Bibcode:2011MPBu...38...57C. ISSN 1052-8091.
  10. ^ Koehn, Bruce W.; Bowell, Edward G.; Skiff, Brian A.; Sanborn, Jason J.; McLelland, Kyle P.; Pravec, Petr; et al. (October 2014). "Lowell Observatory Near-Earth Asteroid Photometric Survey (NEAPS) - 2009 January through 2009 June". The Minor Planet Bulletin. 41 (4): 286–300. Bibcode:2014MPBu...41..286K. ISSN 1052-8091.
  11. ^ a b Spoto, F.; Milani, A.; Farnocchia, D.; Chesley, S. R.; Micheli; Valsecchi; Perna; Hainaut (2014). "Non-gravitational Perturbations and Virtual Impactors: the case of asteroid 2009 FD". Astronomy & Astrophysics. 572: A100. arXiv:1408.0736. Bibcode:2014A&A...572A.100S. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201424743.
  12. ^ Sentry Risk Table Archived January 21, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  13. ^ a b Del Vigna, A.; Roa, J.; Farnocchia, D.; Micheli, M.; Guerra, F.; Spoto, F.; Valsecchi, G. B. (14 June 2019), "Yarkovsky effect detection and updated impact hazard assessment for near-Earth asteroid (410777) 2009 FD", Astronomy & Astrophysics, 627: L11, arXiv:1906.05696, Bibcode:2019A&A...627L..11D, doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201936075
  14. ^ "MPEC 2009-F09 : 2009 FD". IAU Minor Planet Center. 2009-03-17. Retrieved 2013-01-09. (K09F00D)
  15. ^ "MPEC 2010-U20 : Editorial Notice". IAU Minor Planet Center. 2010-10-19. Retrieved 2014-12-29.
  16. ^ a b c d e f "JPL Close-Approach Data: (2009 FD)" (last observation: 2014-04-07; arc: 5.11 years). Archived from the original on 19 December 2013. Retrieved 1 May 2014.
  17. ^ Near Earth Asteroid 2009 FD - whilst you were sleeping! (ice in space)
  18. ^ "2009 FD Ephemerides for 1 April 2014". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 2013-12-17.
  19. ^ Dr. Lance A. M. Benner (2014-03-17). "Goldstone Asteroid Schedule". NASA/JPL Asteroid Radar Research. Retrieved 2014-03-21.
  20. ^ a b c "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2009 FD (arc=650 days)" (2011-01-11 computed on Dec 14, 2010). Wayback Machine: JPL. Archived from the original on January 11, 2011. Retrieved 2014-02-14. (2.3e-03 = 1 in 435 chance)
  21. ^ Chapman, Clark R. (9 January 2003). "How a Near-Earth Object Impact Might Affect Society" (PDF). OECD. Archived from the original (PDF) on 17 February 2005. Retrieved 14 November 2018.
  22. ^ "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2009 FD (arc=1807 days)" (2014-02-10 computed on Feb 07, 2014). Wayback Machine: JPL. Archived from the original on February 10, 2014. Retrieved 2014-05-01.
  23. ^ "(410777) 2009FD". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 2014-05-01. (2.64e-3 = 1 in 379 chance)
  24. ^ "Sentry Notes". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Retrieved 2014-05-01.
  25. ^ "Sentry Risk Table". NASA Near-Earth Object Program. Archived from the original on January 21, 2016. Retrieved June 8, 2012.

External links

This page was last edited on 6 August 2019, at 12:42
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