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ORB survey of Iraq War casualties

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

On Friday, 14 September 2007, ORB International, an independent polling agency located in London, published estimates of the total war casualties in Iraq since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.[1] At over 1.2 million deaths (1,220,580), this estimate is the highest number published so far. From the poll margin of error of +/-2.5% ORB calculated a range of 733,158 to 1,446,063 deaths. The ORB estimate was performed by a random survey of 1,720 adults aged 18+, out of which 1,499 responded, in fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq, between August 12 and August 19, 2007.[2][3] In comparison, the 2006 Lancet survey suggested almost half this number (654,965 deaths) through the end of June 2006. The Lancet authors calculated a range of 392,979 to 942,636 deaths.

On 28 January 2008, ORB published an update based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken September 20 to 24, 2007. As a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.[4][5] As well as estimating the number of deaths the ORB poll also showed that despite the violence only 26% of Iraqis preferred life under Saddam Hussein's regime, while 49% said that they preferred life under the current political system.[6]

This ORB estimate has been criticised as exaggerated and ill-founded in peer reviewed literature.[7]

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  • Lyndon LaRouche's August 15th 2014 Webcast
  • ZEITGEIST: MOVING FORWARD | OFFICIAL RELEASE | 2011

Transcription

Good evening. This is August 15th, 2014. My name is Ross, and I'll be moderating this evening's webcast at larouchepac.com. We're pleased to have with us tonight Dennis Small, Creighton Jones, and Lyndon LaRouche. So, we're meeting at a time of astonishingly swift changes. Time's moving at a seemingly faster rate almost every day. We've got the collapse of the trans-Atlantic sector, we've got the spread of the ebola problem, and we've got a problem in the White House named Obama. Our first question tonight is going to come from our institutional layers, who have a question. It is: "There are possibly over 900 U.S. troops stationed in Iraq or its proximity, according to news media reports. Do you believe President Obama is obligated to inform the U.S. Congress of our troop mission and duration of their stay, in accordance with the War Powers Act?" And I'd like to ask Dennis to briefly respond to this question. Sure. We discussed this matter earlier with Mr. LaRouche, and he agreed emphatically with the idea that of course, Obama must consult with Congress, should he have any desire to launch a war anywhere, as the Constitution requires. And Iraq, what is now going on there,�is�a war, although the White House claims that the only thing happening are air attacks, and there aren't any boots on the ground. But that's simply not the case: Retired, informed generals in the United States military have made it very clear, that if you're going to carry out more air attacks, you're going to need to have troops on the ground to do it. As for the argument that this is necessary to stop ISIS and their atrocities: Nine hundred troops aren't going to do it; 9,000 troops aren't going to do it; 90,000 troops aren't going to do it. What is the most effective means there, is to simply reveal for the public the 28 pages which have been kept secret by, first, the Bush Administration, then by the Obama Administration, which point, from the 9/11 report, to the direct role of the Saudi kingdom, under the control of the British Empire, in financing and arming the al-Qaeda and related forces that were responsible for 9/11, and are in fact behind ISIS today. If you seriously want to stop ISIS, just present the 28 pages. But more to the point than all of this, is that Obama simply should be impeached. The fact of the matter, this has to be done immediately. He's a contemptible piece of crap. He should be removed from the White House immediately. He's over-ripe to be removed from the office. He's a reflection of a valueless system which is now crumbling all around us. So, what would anyone want him around for in any event? As to the argument that, "Well, we'll get to that as soon as he does something even worse," Mr. LaRouche's comment earlier today was, "Don't wait for him to do something worse; just throw him out! The time has come for that. He should be politically removed, fired,�before�he does any more damage." Now, I think it is worth noting that there are people around the world who have realized, and are acting upon the fact that Obama is an empty suit. And Americans and their Congressmen should perhaps wonder how it is, that an empty suit, isn't it in fact time that�he�stop taking�you�to the cleaners? Call his bluff! Look at what Argentina is doing. You have the chief of staff of the Argentine government, Capitanich, who has stated, explicitly, that Obama is responsible for this rogue, out-of-control judiciary which is attempting to use the vulture funds to destroy the nation of Argentina. Look at what is happening in Egypt, where the President, el-Sisi, simply politely said no, he was�not�interested in coming to the summit meeting of African states in Washington with President Obama; he had much more important things to do during that period, which included, among other things, meeting with the President of Russia, Putin�and we'll have more to say about that later in our discussion tonight. Look at what has happened in Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff, a number of months back, simply cancelled a meeting, a state visit to the White House, because she was not exactly amused by what was going on with the espionage against her and other nations, as revealed in the Snowden revelations. Now, these things are all simply symptomatic, but there is a growing wave around the planet of people who are recognizing that Obama has no value�like the dead financial system of the British Empire that he is trying to defend with war and looting. The fact of the matter is, as Mr. LaRouche has been emphasizing over this recent period, we are in a period of a complete�inversion of values. Everything that peoplethought�was of value, the whole financial system, all $2 quadrillion in derivatives, is worth absolutely nothing, or less than nothing; whereas an emerging system, which has come together around the BRICS, the summit meeting in Brazil, their alliances with the UNASUR nations, and a growing alliance of other nations, such as what is happening in Egypt, and what is happening in Argentina and other countries, has taken a completely different tack. It is time to get rid of worthless things, such as Wall Street and everything that it represents. It's time to take out the garbage, including the garbage in the White House. So, I would like, without further ado than that, to ask Mr. LaRouche to come to the podium to discuss these matters with us. All right, what we face now, is a reality which probably most of you in this room have never dreamed could happen. Now, there's a certain friend of ours who travels around a great deal, and he's been travelling quite a bit, and he's reported to�me, and to others, what he's been doing. What is happening is that the fact is that the entire system�the entire system as defined�is hopelessly bankrupt. Now, what is happening, is�and my personal friend, who some people know also as my personal friend�have warned of the need to eliminate those values. And�that's what's going to happen. What's the root of this thing? The root of this is: What is our economy? Well, our economy is actually based, in fact, is based on guess what? It's based on the power of economy. And therefore, we are now developing economic means which have never been known before, except as ideas. And so what happens is, well, a large group of people in the United States decided to�move in, and to bankrupt most of the system�which is what we have to do. Most of what people think are values�of economic values, or price values and so forth�are worthless. They're absolutely worthless. And what happened was, our personal friend, who has been running around to various parts of the United States, reporting to us on what he's doing, and reporting upon what he's doing in terms of people who are part of the instigators of this whole business: We're ready to take over the economy. We are ready to lead in taking over the economy. Who's "we"? Oh, "we" is a lot of people, including my personal friend, who's been doing a lot of reporting to me recently. So, therefore, we now have to institute�a new institution of economy. We're going to have to start doing it now. The whole thing will be based on, actually, on the power which is lodged in nearby space. That has never been touched before. It has never been effectively touched before. It is now�going�to be touched; it's going to be used, now. And therefore we're going into a completely new system, and you'll find everything�all of the people you hated, or should have hated, we're going to be rid of them�not kill them, but just be rid of them. You're going to find out that the wealthiest people in the United States are worthless�themost�worthless. So, all of these things about worry about money: Don't worry about money! Money is often more a�disease�than it is anything else. What we're going to have to do, is we're going to have to make a fundamental change in our entire economy. And this is being done now, and my personal friend, who's been running around in various parts of the United States hither and yon, who's been making these negotiations with very important financial interests�major financial interests of the United States and elsewhere�have been�selling out�the system. They've given a new system of values. Those new values are the ones that are going to be used. These are the same values that are going to be picked up in South America, the same values that�Egypt is a part of this�the same values that are represented in Russia, the same things that are represented in China!�These�are the values. There's where the power lies. You want to�create�something? Make it! How do you make it? You create it. I could say a lot more about that, but that is the short of it all. Everything that we have done, and everything that we have teased ourselves into believing, has been a failure, it's been a big error, because we didn't understand what an economy really is. Now what's happened as a result of this touring around�it's been the past two months, essentially, that this development process has occurred�and suddenly everything that seemed to be true, is no longer true. It's wonderful! But there's much more to say, but rather than my saying it right here and now, I will simply emphasize the fact that this�is�the fact, and this is what you have to discuss. Okay, good. Well, let's get some more specifics on this, in terms of what new developments have been taking place on the fourth of Mr. LaRouche's four-point platform for the United States, which, to remind our viewers, calls for the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall to eliminate Wall Street, the creation of national banking and a federal credit orientation to be able to finance a recovery based on higher energy-flux densities, and with the specific application of that approach to the development of a fusion economy. We discussed rather thoroughly last week, to a good degree, what that would entail, what makes fusion so important, what a fusion economy would be, and I'd like to ask Cody Jones to say more about some of the very exciting recent developments on this front. Okay, thank you, . Yeah, so what I'd like to do is just to continue with that theme which we have been discussing both on this program and in other places on our website, around this quest for helium-3, the development of helium-3 as, really, the currency for the future. Now, as actually went through last week, and, as I said, we've got some papers coming out on, China has launched a very aggressive approach to the Moon, where right now they've made it very clear their intention is to continue with missions to go to the Moon for robotic exploration, but ultimately their intention is to set up permanent industrial bases on the Moon, to mine it for helium-3. Why? Because helium-3 is that fuel source, when used in the appropriate fusion reactor, unlocks the universe in a fundamentally new way to mankind. And China has made it very clear that is their intention: to go to the Moon, mine it for helium-3, and to move forward with a fusion-based economy. Now, in light of what China's been doing, we've been then led to look at what are other nations doing in this regard. And so our attention was turned to some reports that were coming out earlier this Spring out of Russia about what Russia's plans are for space, and specifically for the Moon. So, you had the "leak" of the Russian federal space program. This was a platform that was put together by the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow University, and people from Roscosmos, which is the Russian space program, which laid out a very detailed road-map of what Russia's immediate plans are for the future in space. And so, first, what this report said was that they want to, starting in 2016, have a series of missions to the Moon with robotic landers, which will go and explore the surface of the Moon, and they have four such missions planned, starting in 2016 through 2025. These are known as their Luna missions. Upon the completion of that, hopefully successfully, they then intend to send a manned mission to the orbit of the Moon, to explore the Moon from its orbit, to get a further survey of exactly what it has, what potentials there are there to unlock. And that's, as this time-frame says, that's to occur between around 2029-2030. Upon the successful completion of that second phase, the third phase is calling for sending men to the surface of the Moon to survey it for the establishment of the first Russian base on the Moon, an industrial base on the Moon. And their intention is to do this between 2030 and 2040. That's Russia's orientation now, is "back to the Moon." And they've made it very clear that, in addition to this, starting in 2018, they're going to start doing the first initial investment into building up a prototype Moon base here on Earth, to start to test the kinds of equipment and mining capabilities, and other such things that would then be used and deployed on the Moon. So, Russia has made it very clear that's their orientation, that's where they're going. Now, this report didn't specify helium-3 as their object, but things we've looked at going back to as early as 2006 indicate that this is something which has been on the minds of the Russians: that they have been intent and interested in this idea of going to the Moon to mine it for helium-3 for fusion energy production and other related technologies. Now, whenever Rogozin, who's the Deputy Prime Minister in Russia for space and defense Industries, was asked about this report, his comment was: "We are going to the Moon forever"�making it very clear: We're not going there just to plant a flag or to have a show of things, or to test it to see if it's really made out of cheese. No, Russia says they are going to the Moon "forever," indicating that in fact that is their intention: to industrialize and develop the Moon, and to do this with other nations of the world. Now, it also came out during the more recent period, sort of in the wake of these various BRICS agreements, that Russia is now going to start to import high-end technology, high-end electrical circuit technology, from China, to overcome a number of the problems that Russians have recently been having with their rocket capability. They've had some glitches: People know about the Fobos-Grunt mission which failed. Well, they hope to overcome those challenges now with this new technology being developed in China, which Russia is now intending to import. So, that's their orientation. And you see this in terms of just the overall discussion in Russia, about how they want to reorient their economy, away from the obvious dying system of Western monetarism, of the trans-Atlantic monetarist system, the London/Wall Street system, which is now dying. And, this is indicated in an interview that Sergey Glazyev gave to Bloomberg, indicating what is Russia's orientation now. And, he's a top economic advisor to Mr. Putin, and is also someone who Mr. LaRouche is very familiar with and has had a number interactions with. So, what Glazyev said, is that "What could serve as our chief response," a response to the sanctions and all this insanity occurring around Ukraine and related issues, he said, "What could serve as could chief response is the implementation of a plan for fast-track development of the Russian economy, on the basis of a new technological order. This plan includes a transition to a sovereign monetary system, underpinned by internal sources of credit, an active policy of innovation and support for progress in science and technology." Making it very clear, that's what Russia is orienting towards, a credit-based system for the development of the most advanced frontiers of science and technology. And, namely, that means a return to the Moon for the mining of it for helium-3. Now, I think it's important, just to make the point, about what's so special about helium-3? Now, helium-3 is one of a couple of different fuels that could be used for fusion to create fusion power. The virtue of helium-3, unlike the other, deuterium and tritium, which are now being experimented with, is that with the fusing of helium-3, with either deuterium or with another atom of helium-3, is that the reaction products are charged particles; whereas, in other fusion reactions, the main reaction product is a neutron, which by its name indicates, is a neutral particle, which just flies off with a lot of energy, but the way you harness it, is you have to capture that as it comes out in a random direction, and use it to convert it to heat to run a generator, or what have you. With helium-3, in that the reaction product is a charged particle, a proton, means that it can be controlled and directed, using magnetic fields, which has a number of great advantages. One, you can set up direct energy conversion, where you are using the direct conversion of a proton beam for electricity creation, which gives you about a 70% efficiency versus the 40% efficiency you get with any other kinds of conversion techniques. You can use the controlled and directed proton beams for things like very precision medical procedures, for very complicated brain surgeries, for example, cancers of the brain that can be specifically targetted and eliminated, without causing collateral damage. It has great applications for machining, for cutting, and other types of precision types of manufacturing processes, which would otherwise be impossible under current technologies. And, probably most importantly, is that whenever you are able to control the flow of these protons from a fusion reaction, it now opens up a whole new capability in propulsion capabilities, space propulsion. Meaning, that you can now start to move towards the kind of propulsion that in fact Mr. LaRouche had himself proposed, back in the late '80s, early '90s, of 1 gravity constant acceleration, where you are able to accelerate a ship at a constant 1 gravity acceleration. Which now means the entire Solar System becomes within the domain of activity of the human species; that we're now able to bring the entire Solar System under the controlling command of mankind. And, that we're doing this, based off of a fuel which was deposited on the Moon by our Sun, taking this product from the Sun, putting it into a form which itself has heats which are of excess of a 100 times hotter than the Sun, and then using that power to then give mankind total control over the Solar System as a whole. Which I think really starts to put more into focus, a better idea of how we have to start thinking about such issues such as "value." Now, with helium-3, man can do things which were literally impossible under the lower technology platform. And so, you asked the question, what is able to transform something which was relatively worthless�this gas, helium-3�transform it from a worthless material, into something which has unlimited value for mankind as a species, which gives mankind a whole new power in the universe. It really gives you an idea of the source of value, really deriving from the creative powers of the human mind. The human mind, its powers defines "value," as a function of where we must be and where we must go, into the future. And, so we see this now, this potential emerging, in the wake of the collapse of the current Wall Street/London system, you have now come emerging the alliances of Russia, China, India, Brazil, South America, Argentina, and others, around this perspective, of saying, "We're moving towards a future, which is going to be powered by helium-3, derived from mining on the Moon. And that's our future; that's where we must go." And, hey, I'll end it with that, and see if Mr. LaRouche has some comments or follow-up. Yeah, I do. We have to look a little bit more profoundly at this whole business. These principles we're talking about, were discovered by whom? And when? When were the principles discovered? And by whom? Kepler! In other words, the foundation of the whole system, is the achievement of Kepler. You can not understand adequately, what this means without understanding Kepler in a deep way, which was not understood for a great number of years in between. That's the point. So, we do not have a miracle treatment. That's not what we have. What we have is the ability to�question ourselves, as to what's wrong with us, that we thought we could have an El Cheapo solution to this kind of problem? The problem is, we have not gone deeply enough, in order to deal with this problem. So, we should not brag about these things, because they are not competent in and of themselves. They reflect something which is very important, but we don't understand what it is yet. And, that's the point.�We do not understand what makes the universe work! We have not found out yet!�I came close to it, with what I did, in studies with some of our associates, in terms of this discovery, of this principle, and others here, who are also involved in that study.�But we do not know the answer.�We know the question, and therefore we shouldn't be too bold in saying we're going to have a big success. We should say, "Let's be a little bit more modest. What is it that we have not yet discovered, which solves this problem?" What we're dealing with, we're dealing with this process, we're dealing with as such. Look, we brag about it. We're so proud of it. We enjoy it, talking about it. But, we don't know what it is! We don't know what it is! And, it's when we question ourselves, and say, "Well, what is this miraculous thing?" I know what it is, but I have a tough time explaining it, because I know it involves conceptions which I don't really fully have, but I can pick out things that�do�account for that. And, therefore, what we have to do, instead of rushing ahead and saying we've got a solution for this problem�we�don't�have a solution for this problem. We have thetemptation�of a solution; the temptation of the opportunity to�find�the solution! And that's what we have to do. We need, you're never going to get away from science. Science demands scientific competence and it demands answers to questions of that nature. You can't make it otherwise. And you have to adopt a certain amount of humility about these matters, and as we've done, certainly, in our discussions, discussions we've had in institutions before, we've caught on this thing, we're on the edge of it. Yeah, but I know a lot about this. But I also know what I�don't�know: And that's the most important thing, to know of all things. That's something that's sometimes people lose track of it in discussing these things, you know that fusion's not an engineering project. This is the greatest, next scientific breakthrough, to understand this whole new realm of the physical universe around us. It's not a casual breakthrough and that's why we're doing experiments still. We don't know how it works. If we did, we could just build a power plant, but we don't know how. I wanted to ask � I wanted to get some on, Mr. LaRouche you said this morning that a new standard of value is sweeping the planet, and the people who aren't part of it will be dumped. And we're increasingly seeing that occurring, where larger portions of the planet are aligning towards the real notion of value that's being put forth most dramatically by China with their helium goals, by Russia, by the BRICS in general as well. And countries increasingly have to choose sides on this one. You know, you're having to pick, are you with the trans-Atlantic sector, or are you going to live, are you going to survive? So, I'd like to ask Dennis if we could pain for us, more of the picture about how this fight is unfolding right now, between these two kinds of value, the trans-Atlantic and then the future? SMALL: Well, I'll try to give an idea of the nature of the battle, without bothering to attempt to go through all the details, because they're coming at a pace which is a little bit breathtaking. I think it's important to realize that when we discuss these matters of two systems of value the planet is facing, we're not talking about some sort of a football game where our team is doing better than theirs. We're talking about two completely different, incommensurable, i.e., that they are not comparable using the same metric, systems of comprehension of the physical universe that surrounds us and therefore human action involved. I mean, I was really struck by the discussion we were having earlier which Cody referred to, where Mr. LaRouche was pointing out that helium-3 is nothing! It's simply nothing, it's been lying around for millions of years, it has no intrinsic value per se. The value that it has is only to the degree to which man and his mind develops concepts which are capable of transforming that, to actually do productive work in the universe. It's very much the kind of case of what would have happened with the proverbial farmer, 200 years ago, or 300 years ago, if he was tilling his soil, and all of a sudden, this geyser of sticky black stuff comes shooting out, and which today we call "oil" but for him, then, that was just a pain in the butt. It was no good whatsoever! It just did damage to his crops, and he had no idea that it was useful in any way whatsoever. What changed from then to now? The chemical composition of oil? No. The only thing that changed, but this is everything, is man's ability, to conceptualize the transformation of the physical universe around him. And that I take is the real challenge that's involved here. The problem with the other system, the system that's now dying � they're dying so much they don't even know they're losing � is that they don't understand that that's how the mind works. And therefore, they think that the measure of value is�money. As in $2 quadrillion of derivatives. And parenthetically, let me state for those of you who have been awaiting the update on the sweepstakes on this, that in the last quarter the rate of growth of international derivatives, increased from 19% per year last quarter, to 22% per year this quarter. And therefore, you can rest assured that we will, absolutely, break the $2 quadrillion barrier, this year � if we get there. It's all meaningless! It's all completely worthless. And the problem is, if it were just these silly, crazy ideas you could dismiss them and say, "well, that's pretty stupid. Let's talk about something serious." The problem is, entire societies, live and function on the basis of such ideas or lack of ideas. Europe, today, for example. Europe is disintegrating. It's disintegrating economically, it's disintegrating politically, and it's disintegrating morally. And those in the United States who are listening, don't chuckle, because what's happening under Obama is worse to the United States. Take the case of the economy in Europe: Unemployment across Europe, officially, is, in the case of youth unemployment, in the worst countries is over 50%, and it's pushing 60%! The real unemployment rate in a country like Italy, which has important industrial capabilities, is over 25%. Then, you have the sanctions which were just launched by the British Empire, supposedly against Russia, but it's not really going to do much damage to Russia, it's just posing a challenge to them. The damage that's being done is to Europe! Because, predictably, understandably, and rightly so, the Russians decided they had to defend themselves and their economy, and they simply stated, we are no longer going to be importing foodstuffs from the United States and Europe for the next year. Now, thoughtful European leaders, such as the Prime Minister of Hungary Orb�n have said, that this was to be expected on the Russian part and we in Europe have "shot ourselves in the foot" by the sanctions that we imposed, because this was bound to happen. Now, the agriculture sector in Europe, there's EU30 billion per year of exports to Russia, so you can wipe that out. But that's the very least of it. Now, the European commission has a special fund to back and help, farmers when they get into trouble: They have all of EU420�million, to try to deal with a crisis of EU30�billion�in exports which just went�poof! But that's not what's happening. It much worse than that, because the entire farm sector is in fact going to be wiped out at this rate,�if�they stick to this nonsensical view of the human mind and the monetary values associated with it. Because I'll give you one small example that was pointed out by a leading fruit producer, the head of an association in Austria, who said, listen, we're going to be wiped out completely. "This is a�total catastrophe for all of Europe." That's a precise quote. The reason? Their calculation was that they needed EU35 cents/kilo average for their produce, to survive, that's their breakeven point. Above that, they could invest a little, and they had been getting about EU40 cents. Now, with the sanctions in place and what's happening, they're going to get EU20 cents. Now, you tell me: Is this just going to wipe out the exports to Russia? Of course not! It's going to wipe out the entire food-producing capability of Europe! It doesn't take more than a year of sanctions to do that. And this is exactly the direction that this thing is going in. What responses do you get? Well, for many European countries, they say: We don't want any more of this, at all � Austria, Finland, Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, they're all yelling and screaming about this. On the British side, you have geniuses, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writing in theDaily Telegraph, who listeners to this program are very familiar with, and what he said is, well, what all of this means, yes, there's a terrible crisis, it's all going down. Europe is in terrible shape. What that means is that the Central Bank of Europe, the ECB, now has to get really serious and start issuing money�like there's no tomorrow: quantitative easing, more and more and more and more. And he said, what we have to do, is, we have to use the "ultimate bazooka"! Meaning "really big" quantitative easing. But, what Mr. Evans-Pritchard, and others perhaps, have not contemplated, is that bazookas, ultimate or otherwise, don't put food on your table. There's a simple question here: Monetary value and physical economic production are not only different, they're completely incommensurable. They're not the same thing. Now, not surprisingly, not everyone is quite so stupid as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. For example, take the nations of Ibero-America. The European Union, after they'd just lost their Russia market completely because they foolishly went along with the British sanctions and with Obama's sanctions and so on, decided to try to pressure Ibero-America to�not�sell foodstuffs to Russia, because that was "unfair" they said, so don't jump in our market, which they'd just lost. Well, Argentina and Russia are moving so rapidly to establish massive Argentina exports to Russia, that there's actually an Argentina team in Russia as of the 19th of August, and they're going to vastly increase their exports, and Argentina has that capability. But what I thought was most revealing was the response of the President of Ecuador Correa, who said, "We don't need anyone's permission to sell food products to friendly countries." Close quote. Now, this is the President of a country with 15 million inhabitants, speaking to an association of 500 million inhabitants! What's he talking about? There's one way to survive: And it is�not�with the policies of the European Union. As the President of Argentina Cristina Fern�ndez de Kirchner put it so eloquently, "There are new actors, who don't want to bash your head in, but rather want to cooperate with you to see if together, we can get this huge car, that is the world today, moving forward." So, what I'm getting at here, is that empires are arrogant. They're not only criminal and Satanic, but they're arrogant, because they don't see that they are in fact, sowing the seeds of their own destruction, because through their overreach they don't realize that they will in fact produce a reaction in the victim populations, that can overturn the apple cart in a day � as occurred in East Germany, for example. Unless, of course, they blow up the world before then, and that's a very real danger, which is why we have to move rapidly on this thing. But resistance, simply saying "no," simply saying, "what you're doing is nuts! This is not value! You call that a President? That empty suit in the White House, you call that a President? Forget it! We don't have anything to talk to you about. You call $2 quadrillion or euros or whatever it is, in monetary assets 'value'? It's meaningless! We need food! We need energy! We need the�ideas, that can take this inert gas, which is just a gas, a transform it into an absolutely prodigious source of power to change the universe." Now, let me talk a little bit about the Ebola crisis, and what's going on in Africa, because I think that this is actually a much bigger crisis that Europe is facing thateither�the economic or social and political crisis that I've mentioned so far, and I'll explain what I mean. People are familiar that there's a terrible epidemic of Ebola, which is sweeping especially three countries in Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, and there is the danger of this spreading; it already has spread to some other countries. There's over 1,000 cases, and the World Health Organization, which has no propensity for sounding the alarm unnecessarily, today, said the following. They report that their staff at the outbreak sites, "see evidence that the numbers of reported cases and deaths vastly underestimate the magnitude of the outbreak," and they called for "extraordinary measures needed, on a massive scale, to contain the outbreak in this setting, characterized by extreme poverty, dysfunctional health systems, a severe shortage of doctors, and rampant fear." Close quote. Now, already this year, 75,000 refugees fled Africa to the nations of southern Europe, admittedly from countries not yet affected by Ebola. Germany has already announced that they are urging all German citizens to leave three countries that I mentioned, other than health care workers; Serbia has placed surveillance over 14 people that have flown in from the affected areas; there are politicians in Italy that are calling for close down the "Mare Nostrum," that is to say, the Mediterranean, don't let anyone come in! Spain, which has two cities, which are Spanish cities on African territory, Ceuta and Melilla, right across the Straits of Gibraltar, people from the other side, from Morocco and so on, are climbing the fences to try to get into Spain to get the hell out of Africa, and there is a furor going on in Spain and about whether or not these people should be allowed in, and what you do � at the time that Spain has just privatized, and therefore dismantled their premium infectious diseases hospital in Madrid, the Charles III Hospital. Now, what're you going to do? Are you going to start shooting boats crossing the Mediterranean, to try to flee Africa to come into Europe? Is this what people are going to propose? Are you going to bomb people, because they're sick? Well, the British would propose doing that: In fact, in the early '90s, there was a theory proposed, which was the "Limes" theory, which comes from the Latin for building a wall, drawing a line, and the proposal was, listen, the South isn't going to make, they're just going to die! We have to build barricades, we have to build fences, we've got to stop the barbarians from coming in � "we happy few," us 5% or 0.5% of the population are going to keep everybody out, no matter what it takes. And they pointed to the�border with Mexico and the United States�and the fact that a wall was being built, as their example of where things should go. And for those of you who are familiar with the work of the LaRouche movement, back in that period, we exposed the comments of Rockefeller Foundation genocidalist, by the name of William Paddock, who proposed explicitly that what you have to do with Mexico, is, quote: "Shut the border and watch them scream." Now. Compare this, with this thinking, this view of man, this moral concept which isvery�much related to what Mr. LaRouche was raising earlier about the role of mind in defining value, compare that to what's also happening on the Africa continent�this week. In Egypt, where President el-Sisi has announced that they are going to build a new Suez Canal; it is going to be 38 km in length, to widen the existing one, it will cut the transit time from 18 hours to 11 hours, there will be 15,000 workers employed there. They will not take three years to build it, as originally announced, they will take one year to build it. It will be run by the army corps of engineers of Egypt; all of the companies involved in it will be Egyptian, and it will be financed by issuing bonds, purchasable only domestically by Egyptians. So, long-dormant forces are awakening. And they're awakening under the process unleashed by this conception of a new kind of universe that in fact can be created, if man returns to being man. And let me just close on this point with what I wanted to say by recalling for people that this is not the first time that we've faced a crisis of this sort. And I'm referring to the period of the 14th century and the Black Death, and the Ebola crisis is reminiscent of that in many ways, in terms of the issues posed: Because what was happening then, the worst that happened was not that people died, but that people turned into animals. They turned into people who didn't care about others. You have Boccaccio, for example, in his introduction to�Decameron, writes: "This tribulation," meaning the Black Death, "had stricken such terror to the hearts of all, men and women alike, that brother forsook brother, uncle nephew, and sister brother, and oftentimes wife husband. Nay, what is yet more extraordinary and well nigh incredible, fathers and mothers refused to visit or tend to their very children." Close quote. In that period, there were two political movements and social and cultural movements that developed which 99.9% of the population fell into one category or the other. One was the hedonists, the people who said, "we're all going to die tomorrow, let's party and have fun today. Doesn't matter what's going to happen, we're all going to die" � does that sound familiar? And the other half were the Flagellants, the people who said, "this is incomprehensible, man could never possibly understand God's intention, He's punishing us, we don't know why, for committing evil." And what they did is they flagellated themselves,�but�they made sure to traipse around all of Europe in pilgrimages, flagellating themselves � and spreading the Black Death! And humanity almost disappeared! For anyone who has studied this, it is a�verysobering and frightening experience, because humanity almost wiped itself out. Because of a bad idea, a wrong idea. And what saved us, was actually the Renaissance, was a different concept of man, the same type of change in concept of man that Mr. LaRouche is talking about now, with this idea involving helium-3 and fusion. And the idea was that man's mind�is�capable not only of understanding the order of creation, but changing it. Or, to quote Nicholas of Cusa, "Mind is a substantial form of power." And I think that is some of the underlying issues that are actually on the table for us to address and work forward on, on the question of helium-3 and fusion today, and putting to an end this disastrous system which is otherwise governing the trans-Atlantic part of the planet. Well, Lyn, do you have any concluding thoughts you'd like to add? There is a lot I have to say, a great deal. And I would say, we have a member, who usually attends these events directly or indirectly, who has actually done the work in conjunction with people he trusted, who have done the calculations which are necessary to solve this problem. And therefore, what he has done, what Jeff has done, has been�immensely�important. It's involved leading people inside the United States and beyond, who are beyond the beyond in terms of their recollection. And it was, without that, without what Jeff was doing, and what he was feeding to me, we would not have known what kind of a mess we're in today, and we would not have been able to solve the problem and eliminate the mess. Good. Yeah, we've got a lot of work today. Sounds like Jeff's definitely got a lot of work to do � you hear that, Jeff? Yes! [laughs] So, I think that'll wrap it up for tonight. Thank you for joining us, and stay tuned.

Survey question and results

Participants of the ORB survey were asked the following question:

How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence rather than a natural death such as old age)? Please note that I mean those who were actually living under your roof.

The revised results[5] were

Number of deaths

in household

Percent

of responders

None 72%
One 14%
Two 3%
Three 1%
Four or more "figure more than zero but less than 0.5%"[5]
Don't know 2%
No answer 8%

Causes of death

ORB reported that "48% died from a gunshot wound, 20% from the impact of a car bomb, 9% from aerial bombardment, 6% as a result of an accident and 6% from another blast/ordnance."[1]

Methodology

From the September 14, 2007 ORB press release[1] concerning the first set of interviews:

  • Results are based on face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of 1,720 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq (1,499 agreed to answer the question on household deaths)
  • The standard margin of error on the sample who answered (1,499) is +2.5%
  • The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling and covers fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq. For security reasons Karbala and Al Anbar were not included. Irbil was excluded as the authorities refused the field team a permit.

Their pollster was Dr. Munqeth Daghir, founding director of the Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACS).[1][8] ORB described IIACSS as a “polling/ research company established in Iraq in 2003 and which has a network of interviewers covering all regions of the country."[5]

ORB is a member of the British Polling Council.[5]

Estimated range of deaths

The 2005 census reported 4,050,597 households. From this ORB calculated 1,220,580 deaths since the 2003 invasion. From the poll margin of error of 2.5% ORB came up with a range of 733,158 to 1,446,063 deaths.[1]

January 2008 update: 1,033,000 deaths

Opinion Research Business published an update to the survey on 28 January 2008, based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken and as a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.[4]

Criticism

The ORB poll estimate has come under criticism in a peer reviewed paper entitled "Conflict Deaths in Iraq: A Methodological Critique of the ORB Survey Estimate", published in the journal Survey Research Methods. This paper "describes in detail how the ORB poll is riddled with critical inconsistencies and methodological shortcomings", and concludes that the ORB poll is "too flawed, exaggerated and ill-founded to contribute to discussion of the human costs of the Iraq war".[9][10]

Epidemiologist Francisco Checci echoed these conclusions in a 2010 BBC World Service interview, stating that he thinks the ORB estimate was "too high" and "implausible". Checci, like the paper above, says that a "major weakness" of the poll was a failure to adequately distinguish between households and extended family.[11]

The Iraq Body Count project also rejected what they called the "hugely exaggerated death toll figures" of ORB, citing the Survey Research Methods paper, which Josh Dougherty of IBC co-wrote.[9] IBC concluded that, "The pressing need is for more truth rooted in real experience, not the manipulation of numbers disconnected from reality."[12]

John Rentoul, a columnist for The Independent newspaper, has asserted that the ORB estimate "exaggerate[s] the toll by a factor of as much as 10" and that "the ORB estimate has rarely been treated as credible by responsible media organisations, but it is still widely repeated by cranks and the ignorant."[13]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e "More than 1,000,000 Iraqis murdered". September 2007. Opinion Research Business.
  2. ^ "Poll: Civilian Death Toll in Iraq May Top 1 Million" Archived 2014-05-31 at the Wayback Machine. By Tina Susman. 14 September 2007. Los Angeles Times.
  3. ^ "Greenspan Admits Iraq was About Oil, As Deaths Put at 1.2 Million". By Peter Beaumont and Joanna Walters. 16 September 2007. The Observer (UK).
  4. ^ a b Update on Iraqi Casualty Data Archived 2011-02-20 at the Wayback Machine by Opinion Research Business, January 2008. Info in PDF and DOC form is linked on the bottom of the page.
  5. ^ a b c d e Revised casualty analysis. New analysis ‘confirms’ 1 million+ Iraq casualties Archived February 19, 2009, at the Wayback Machine. Jan. 28, 2008. Opinion Research Business. Word Viewer for .doc files.
  6. ^ "ORB - Opinion Business Research - Newsroom". Archived from the original on 2009-02-11. Retrieved 2015-09-26.
  7. ^ "Conflict Deaths in Iraq: A Methodological Critique of the ORB Survey Estimate" By Michael Spagat and Josh Dougherty
  8. ^ "Of course I was scared. But I really believe that I am doing the right thing". Article about ORB pollster Dr. Munqeth Daghir. Jan. 2006. Research (magazine). (See also: PDF article with photos).
  9. ^ a b "Conflict Deaths in Iraq: A Methodological Critique of the ORB Survey Estimate" Archived July 19, 2011, at the Wayback Machine By Michael Spagat and Josh Dougherty
  10. ^ "Study reveals fundamental flaws to 2007 estimate of one million Iraqis killed" Royal Holloway University of London
  11. ^ "Counting bodies: how many people were killed in the Iraq war?" BBC World Service
  12. ^ "Exaggerated claims, substandard research, and a disservice to truth" By Iraq Body Count
  13. ^ The Independent
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