In economics, the credibility revolution was the movement towards improved reliability in empirical economics through a focus on the quality of research design and the use of more experimental and quasi experimental methods. Developing in the 1990s and early 2000s, this movement was aided by advances in theoretical econometric understanding, but was especially driven by research studies that focused on the use of clean and credible research designs.
Studies driving the credibility revolution have made use of better quality data, and also econometric techniques such as difference in differences, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, natural experiments, and even, when funding and opportunity permit, true randomized experiments. These techniques have made it possible (in principle) to distinguish between correlation and causality better than methods previously used.[1]
The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens for their work in fostering the credibility revolution.[2][3] Alan Krueger is closely associated with the work of the three economists though died two years before the prize was awarded.[4]
The term "credibility revolution" was coined by Joshua Angrist in 2010, in his paper describing the changes in empirical economics that had occurred since the 1980s.[5]
See also
References
- ^ Leamer, Edward (1983). "Model choice and specification analysis". Handbook of Econometrics. Elsevier. pp. 285–330. Retrieved 18 October 2021.
- ^ "The Nobel prize in economics celebrates an empirical revolution". The Economist. 12 October 2021. Retrieved 18 October 2021.
- ^ Pischke, Jörn-Steffen (16 October 2021). "Natural experiments in labour economics and beyond: The 2021 Nobel laureates David Card, Joshua Angrist, and Guido Imbens". VoxEU.org. Retrieved 18 October 2021.
- ^ "A Nobel prize for an economics revolution : The Indicator from Planet Money". NPR.org. Retrieved 2022-04-05.
- ^ Angrist, Joshua D.; Pischke, Jörn-Steffen (June 2010). "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics". Journal of Economic Perspectives. 24 (2): 3–30. doi:10.1257/jep.24.2.3. hdl:1721.1/54195. ISSN 0895-3309.
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