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Transcription
Hello Internet
The UK had an election we need to talk about
because after the debates finished, the people
voted and the ballots tallied the results
were this:
But parliament ended up looking like this:
Which isn't, exactly, representative. And
by not exactly, I mean at all.
Red earned 30% of the vote and 36% of the
seats, which is sort of close, but the rest
is madness: Orange earned 8% of the vote but
got one eighth of that while Yellow's 5% just
about doubled, and purple earned 13% and got
squat.
Meanwhile blue's 37% of the people booted
to 51% of the seats in parliament. The blue
boost is even bigger when you consider that
51% of the seats gives basically 100% the
control.
How'd this happen?
In the UK -- national elections aren't really
national, they're a bunch of local elections.
The UK is divided into constituencies, each
of which elects one member of parliament (M.P.)
to represent them. This local / national divide
is where the trouble begins.
Imagine a parliament with just three constituencies,
and it's easy to see how it wouldn't always
align with citizens. Some people think this
sort of result is fine -- “it's all *about*
winning local elections,” they’ll say.
“Each M.P. represents their constituency.”
And while the imbalance in this example is
dumb, but it's the same problem in the real
election and this same argument is given,
but there are two more problems with it in
reality land.
1) Few citizens have any idea who their MP
is, they just know what party they voted for
-- what party they want to represent their
views on the national level. And pretending
like it's a local election is a bit disingenuous.
-- in practice it's an election for now the
nation will run -- not really for who is going
to represent a tiny part of it.
and even if it were
2) The individual constituencies are worse
at representing their citizens than parliament.
Indulge this spreadsheet-loving nerd for a
moment, will you?
The difference between what a party earned
at the polls and what they got in parliament
is the amount of misrepresentation error.
If we calculate all the errors for all the
parties and add them up we can say the Parliament
as a whole has 47% percentage points of misrepresentation
error. That sounds bad looks like a utopian
rainbow of diversity compared to any local
election because the local elections have
*one* winner. Out of the 650 constituencies
647 have a higher representation error than
parliament. These are the only three that
don't and they're really unusual for having
so many of a single kind of voter in one place.
Most places look the The Wrekin which is dead
in the middle a mere one-hundred and one points
off. Note that the winning candidate didn't
reach a majority here. Which means more than
half of constituencies elected their MP with
a minority of voters.
The worst is Belfast South at the bottom of
the list. Hilariously unrepresentative. Less
than a quarter of the voters get to speak
for the entire place in parliament. This is
the the lowest percentage an M.P. has ever
been elected by.
So when people argue that the UK election
is a bunch of local elections 1) people don't
act like it, and 2) It's even more of an argument
that the elections are broken because they're
worse on this level.
These local elections are unrepresentative
because of the terrible 'First Past the Post'
voting system -- which I have complained mightily
about and won't repeat everything here -- go
watch the video -- but TL;DR it only 'works'
when citizens are limited to two choices.
Voting for any party except the biggest makes
it more likely the biggest will win by a minority
-- which is exactly what happened.
That citizens keep voting for smaller parties
despite knowing the result is against their
strategic interests demonstrates the citizenry
wants diverse representation -- but that successes
is the very thing that's made this the most
unrepresentative parliament in the history
of the UK.
People happy with the results argue the system
is working fine -- of course they do. Their
team won.
Government isn't a sport where a singular
'winner' must be determined. It's a system
to make rules that everyone follows and so,
we need a system where everyone can agree
the process is fair even if the results don't
go in their favor.
If you support a system that disenfranchises
people you don't like and turbo-franchises
people you do -- then it doesn't look like
you sport representative democracy, it looks
like you support a kind of dictatorship light.
Where a small group of people (including you)
makes the rules for everyone.
But as it is now, on election day the more
people express what they want the worse the
system looks which makes them disengaged at
best or angry at worst and GEE I CAN'T IMAGINE
WHY.
This is fixable, there are many, many better
ways the UK could vote -- here are two that
even keep local representatives.
And fixing voting really matters, because
this is a kind of government illegitimacy
score -- and it's been going up and may continue
to do so unless this fundamentally broken
voting system is changed.
Boundaries
Map of current boundaries
1885–1918
In the parliamentary borough of Belfast, Dock ward (except the part in the Belfast North constituency); the part of Cromac ward in County Down; the townlands of Ballycloghan, Ballyhackamore, Ballymaghan, Ballymisert and Strandtown in the parish of Holywood; and the townlands of Ballyrushboy, Knock and Multyhogy in the parish of Knockbreda.[2]
In the county borough of Belfast, the wards of Mountpottinger, Dock and Victoria[4]
1974–1983
In the county borough of Belfast, the wards of Pottinger and Victoria, and in the Rural District of Castlereagh, the district electoral divisions of Ballyhackamore, Ballymaconaghy, Ballymiscaw, Castlereagh, Dundonald, and Gilnakirk[5]
1983–1997
The District of Belfast wards of Ballyhackamore, Ballymacarrett, Belmont, Bloomfield, Island, Orangefield, Shandon, Stormont, Sydenham, and The Mount, and the District of Castlereagh wards of Cregagh, Downshire, Lisnasharragh, and Wynchurch[6]
1997–2010
The District of Belfast wards of Ballyhackamore, Ballymacarrett, Belmont, Bloomfield, Cherryvalley, Island, Knock, Orangefield, Stormont, Sydenham, and The Mount, and the District of Castlereagh wards of Cregagh, Downshire, Gilnahirk, Hillfoot, Lisnasharragh, Lower Braniel, Tullycarnet, Upper Braniel, and Wynchurch.[7]
2010–present
The District of Belfast wards of Ballyhackamore, Ballymacarrett, Belmont, Bloomfield, Cherryvalley, Island, Knock, Orangefield, Stormont, Sydenham, and The Mount, and the District of Castlereagh wards of Ballyhanwood, Carrowreagh, Cregagh, Downshire, Dundonald, Enler, Gilnakirk, Graham's Bridge, Lisnasharragh, Lower Braniel, Tullycarnet, and Upper Braniel.[8]
Prior to the 2010 general election the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission proposed expanding Belfast East further into Castlereagh, taking in areas currently contained in Strangford, however almost all of these areas were part of Belfast East until 1983. A small part of the constituency was proposed for transfer to Belfast South.
Following a public meeting and revised recommendations, the new boundaries of Belfast East were confirmed by the commission and passed through Parliament through the use of the Northern Ireland Parliamentary Constituencies Order.[9]
History
Belfast East is an overwhelmingly unionist constituency with nationalist parties routinely failing to get more than 10% of the vote combined. The main interest has been the contest between unionist parties and the fortunes of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland.
Dominated by the giant Samson and Goliath cranes of the Harland and Wolff shipyard, the constituency is socially mixed. There are large expanses of small Victorian terraced housing near Belfast City Centre and around the shipyard in Ballymacarrett. These areas have seen significant refurbishment, and in some places demolition and redevelopment, in recent years sparking a sharp rise in house prices. This is contrasted by a large amount of solidly lower-middle class housing and some exclusive residential districts such as the much mocked Cherryvalley. This social polarisation is to a large degree reflected by the political polarisation, at least within the broader unionist family, in the seat. The small Catholic population is split between the largely working class Short Strandenclave and minorities in the more middle-class parts of the seat.
In the 1979 general election the constituency witnessed a very close three-way fight between Peter Robinson of the Democratic Unionist Party, William Craig for the UUP and Oliver Napier for the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland. Less than 1000 votes separated the three candidates. Robinson beat Craig by the narrow margin of 64 votes. Also of note was that over 90% of votes went to parties that had not contested the seat at the previous election – in part due to realignments of the parties.
Robinson continued to hold the seat but the Alliance Party continued to poll well, and in 1987John Alderdice polled 32.1% – the highest ever for Alliance in a Westminster election before 2010. However, their vote declined until 2010 and in 2005 they finished a distant third.
In the 2001 general election, Alliance proposed a pro-Good Friday Agreement pact with the Ulster Unionist Party in the hopes of getting UUP support in Belfast East. The UUP did not agree and so both parties stood. Robinson was re-elected with 42.5%, with the UUP, Alliance and Progressive Unionist Party carving up the pro-Agreement pro-union vote between them, but it is doubtful that an unopposed Alliance candidate could have consolidated all of that vote to beat Robinson.
In 2009 and 2010, Robinson became mired in a number of political scandals. In the 2010 general election, however, the Alliance Party candidate and sitting Lord Mayor of Belfast Naomi Long defeated Robinson, in a shock result, more than tripling the Alliance vote and giving the Alliance their first ever seat in Westminster. Predictably, this was also the seat in which the Alliance gained the highest vote share, at 37.2%, more than double their best efforts elsewhere.
Of the 18 seats in the region, East Belfast has the highest percentage of Methodists. The 2019 winning vote share was the fourth-largest of the region, but just short of an absolute majority.
Members of Parliament
The Member of Parliament after the 2010 general election was Naomi Long, who defeated Peter Robinson, MP for Belfast East since the 1979 general election. Long subsequently lost her seat to Gavin Robinson in the 2015 election.
Note: The by-election was caused by the decision of all Unionist MPs to resign their seats and seek re-election on a platform of opposition to the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
^"Usual Resident Population". Northern Ireland Neighbourhood Information Service. Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. Archived from the original on 25 July 2023. Retrieved 24 January 2015.
^Craig, F. W. S. (1983) [1969]. British parliamentary election results 1918-1949 (3rd ed.). Chichester: Parliamentary Research Services. p. 564. ISBN0-900178-06-X.