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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2006 congressional elections in Arizona were elections for Arizona's delegation to the United States House of Representatives, which occurred along with congressional elections nationwide on November 7, 2006. Arizona has eight seats, as apportioned during the 2000 United States census. Prior to the election, Republicans held six of the eight seats and Democrats held two.[1] In the 8th district, Republican Congressman Jim Kolbe retired, leaving an open seat. Following the elections, Democrats gained two seats at the expense of the Republicans, who lost two.
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Congressional Elections: Crash Course Government and Politics #6
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2006 MA Gubernatorial Candidate Debate: Round II
Transcription
Hi, I'm Craig and this is Crash Course Government and Politics, and today we're going to talk about what is, if you ask the general public, the most important part of politics: elections. If you ask me, it's hair styles. Look at Martin Van Buren's sideburns, how could he not be elected? Americans are kind of obsessed with elections, I mean when this was being recorded in early 2015, television, news and the internet were already talking about who would be Democrat and Republican candidates for president in 2016. And many of the candidates have unofficially been campaigning for years. I've been campaigning; your grandma's been campaigning. Presidential elections are exciting and you can gamble on them. Is that legal, can you gamble on them, Stan? Anyway, why we're so obsessed with them is a topic for another day. Right now I'm gonna tell you that the fixation on the presidential elections is wrong, but not because the president doesn't matter. No, today we're gonna look at the elections of the people that are supposed to matter the most, Congress. Constitutionally at least, Congress is the most important branch of government because it is the one that is supposed to be the most responsive to the people. One of the main reasons it's so responsive, at least in theory, is the frequency of elections. If a politician has to run for office often, he or she, because unlike the president we have women serving in Congress, kind of has to pay attention to what the constituents want, a little bit, maybe. By now, I'm sure that most of you have memorized the Constitution, so you recognize that despite their importance in the way we discuss politics, elections aren't really a big feature of the Constitution. Except of course for the ridiculously complex electoral college system for choosing the president, which we don't even want to think about for a few episodes. In fact, here's what the Constitution says about Congressional Elections in Article 1 Section 2: "The House of Representatives shall be composed of members chosen every second year by the people of the several states, and the electors in each state shall have the qualifications requisite for electors of the most numerous branch of the state legislature." So the Constitution does establish that the whole of the house is up for election every 2 years, and 1/3 of the senate is too, but mainly it leaves the scheduling and rules of elections up to the states. The actual rules of elections, like when the polls are open and where they actually are, as well as the registration requirements, are pretty much up to the states, subject to some federal election law. If you really want to know the rules in your state, I'm sure that someone at the Board of Elections, will be happy to explain them to you. Really, you should give them a call; they're very, very lonely. In general though, here's what we can say about American elections. First stating the super obvious, in order to serve in congress, you need to win an election. In the House of Representatives, each election district chooses a single representative, which is why we call them single-member districts. The number of districts is determined by the Census, which happens every 10 years, and which means that elections ending in zeros are super important, for reasons that I'll explain in greater detail in a future episode. It's because of gerrymandering. The Senate is much easier to figure out because both of the state Senators are elected by the entire state. It's as if the state itself were a single district, which is true for states like Wyoming, which are so unpopulated as to have only 1 representative. Sometimes these elections are called at large elections. Before the election ever happens, you need candidates. How candidates are chosen differs from state to state, but usually it has something to do with political parties, although it doesn't have to. Why are things so complicated?! What we can say is that candidates, or at least good candidates, usually have certain characteristics. Sorry America. First off, if you are gonna run for office, you should have an unblemished record, free of, oh I don't know, felony convictions or sex scandals, except maybe in Louisiana or New York. This might lead to some pretty bland candidates or people who are so calculating that they have no skeletons in their closet, but we Americans are a moral people and like our candidates to reflect our ideals rather than our reality. The second characteristic that a candidate must possess is the ability to raise money. Now some candidates are billionaires and can finance their own campaigns. But most billionaires have better things to do: buying yachts, making even more money, building money forts, buying more yachts, so they don't have time to run for office. But most candidates get their money for their campaigns by asking for it. The ability to raise money is key, especially now, because running for office is expensive. Can I get a how expensive is it? "How expensive is it?!" Well, so expensive that the prices of elections continually rises and in 2012 winners of House races spent nearly 2 million each. Senate winners spent more than 10 million. By the time this episode airs, I'm sure the numbers will be much higher like a gajillion billion million. Money is important in winning an election, but even more important, statistically, is already being in Congress. Let's go to the Thought Bubble. The person holding an office who runs for that office again is called the incumbent and has a big advantage over any challenger. This is according to political scientists who, being almost as bad at naming things as historians, refer to this as incumbency advantage. There are a number of reasons why incumbents tend to hold onto their seats in congress, if they want to. The first is that a sitting congressman has a record to run on, which we hope includes some legislative accomplishments, although for the past few Congresses, these don't seem to matter. The record might include case work, which is providing direct services to constituents. This is usually done by congressional staffers and includes things like answering questions about how to get certain government benefits or writing recommendation letters to West Point. Congressmen can also provide jobs to constituents, which is usually a good way to get them to vote for you. These are either government jobs, kind of rare these days, called patronage or indirect employment through government contracts for programs within a Congressman's district. These programs are called earmarks or pork barrel programs, and they are much less common now because Congress has decided not to use them any more, sort of. The second advantage that incumbents have is that they have a record of winning elections, which if you think about it, is pretty obvious. Being a proven winner makes it easier for a congressmen to raise money, which helps them win, and long term incumbents tend to be more powerful in Congress which makes it even easier for them to raise money and win. The Constitution give incumbents one structural advantage too. Each elected congressman is allowed $100,000 and free postage to send out election materials. This is called the franking privilege. It's not so clear how great an advantage this is in the age of the internet, but at least according to the book The Victory Lab, direct mail from candidates can be surprisingly effective. How real is this incumbency advantage? Well if you look at the numbers, it seems pretty darn real. Over the past 60 years, almost 90% of members of The House of Representatives got re-elected. The Senate has been even more volatile, but even at the low point in 1980 more than 50% of sitting senators got to keep their jobs. Thanks, Thought Bubble. You're so great. So those are some of the features of congressional elections. Now, if you'll permit me to get a little politically sciencey, I'd like to try to explain why elections are so important to the way that Congressmen and Senators do their jobs. In 1974, political scientist David Mayhew published a book in which he described something he called "The Electoral Connection." This was the idea that Congressmen were primarily motivated by the desire to get re-elected, which intuitively makes a lot of sense, even though I'm not sure what evidence he had for this conclusion. Used to be able to get away with that kind of thing I guess, clearly David may-not-hew to the rules of evidence, pun [rim shot], high five, no. Anyway Mayhew's research methodology isn't as important as his idea itself because The Electoral Connection provides a frame work for understanding congressman's activities. Mayhew divided representatives' behaviors and activities into three categories. The first is advertising; congressmen work to develop their personal brand so that they are recognizable to voters. Al D'Amato used to be know in New York as Senator Pothole, because he was able to bring home so much pork that he could actually fix New York's streets. Not by filling them with pork, money, its money, remember pork barrel spending? The second activity is credit claiming; Congressmen get things done so that they can say they got them done. A lot of case work and especially pork barrel spending are done in the name of credit claiming. Related to credit claiming, but slightly different, is position taking. This means making a public judgmental statement on something likely to be of interest to voters. Senators can do this through filibusters. Representatives can't filibuster, but they can hold hearings, publicly supporting a hearing is a way of associating yourself with an idea without having to actually try to pass legislation. And of course they can go on the TV, especially on Sunday talk shows. What's a TV, who even watches TV? Now the idea of The Electoral Connection doesn't explain every action a member of Congress takes; sometimes they actually make laws to benefit the public good or maybe solve problems, huh, what an idea! But Mayhew's idea gives us a way of thinking about Congressional activity, an analytical lens that connects what Congressmen actually do with how most of us understand Congressmen, through elections. So the next time you see a Congressmen call for a hearing on a supposed horrible scandal or read about a Senator threatening to filibuster a policy that may have significant popular support, ask yourself, "Is this Representative claiming credit or taking a position, and how will this build their brand?" In other words: what's the electoral connection and how will whatever they're doing help them get elected? This might feel a little cynical, but the reality is Mayhew's thesis often seems to fit with today's politics. Thanks for watching, see you next week. Vote for me; I'm on the TV. I'm not -- I'm on the YouTube. Crash Course: Government and Politics is produced in association with PBS Digital Studios. Support for Crash Course US Government comes from Voqal. Voqal supports nonprofits that use technology and media to advance social equity. Learn more about their mission and initiatives at Voqal.org. Crash Course is made by all of these nice people. Thanks for watching. That guy isn't nice.
Overview
Statewide
Party | Candidates | Votes | Seats | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
Republican | 8 | 771,246 | 51.65 | 4 | 2 | 50.00 | |
Democratic | 7 | 627,259 | 42.01 | 4 | 2 | 50.00 | |
Libertarian | 8 | 90,214 | 6.04 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Independent | 1 | 4,408 | 0.30 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Write-in | 4 | 24 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Total | 28 | 1,493,151 | 100.0 | 8 | 100.0 |
By district
Results of the 2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:
District | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian | Others | Total | Result | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
District 1 | 105,646 | 51.75% | 88,691 | 43.45% | 9,802 | 4.80% | 0 | 0.00% | 204,139 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
District 2 | 135,150 | 58.62% | 89,671 | 38.89% | 5,734 | 2.49% | 5 | 0.00% | 230,560 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
District 3 | 112,519 | 59.27% | 72,586 | 38.23% | 4,744 | 2.50% | 0 | 0.00% | 189,849 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
District 4 | 18,627 | 23.92% | 56,464 | 72.52% | 2,770 | 3.56% | 0 | 0.00% | 77,861 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
District 5 | 93,815 | 46.44% | 101,838 | 50.41% | 6,357 | 3.15% | 0 | 0.00% | 202,010 | 100.0% | Democratic gain |
District 6 | 152,201 | 74.80% | 0 | 0.00% | 51,285 | 25.20% | 0 | 0.00% | 203,486 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
District 7 | 46,498 | 35.35% | 80,354 | 61.09% | 4,673 | 3.55% | 0 | 0.00% | 131,525 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
District 8 | 106,790 | 42.09% | 137,655 | 54.25% | 4,849 | 1.91% | 4,427 | 1.74% | 253,721 | 100.0% | Democratic gain |
Total | 771,246 | 51.65% | 627,259 | 42.01% | 90,214 | 6.04% | 4,432 | 0.30% | 1,493,151 | 100.0% |
District 1
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County results Renzi: 40–50% 50-60% 60–70% Simon: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The normally Republican 1st district, based in the region north of Phoenix and Tucson and one of the largest districts by land area in the country, had been represented by Republican Rick Renzi since his initial election in 2002.
Republican primary
Renzi faced ethical problems in this election and was named by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington as one of the most corrupt candidates running for office that year.[2]
Candidates
Nominee
- Rick Renzi, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rick Renzi | 37,644 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 37,644 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ellen Simon, attorney and activist
Eliminated in primary
- Mike Caccioppoli, former radio correspondent[4]
- Bob Donahue, businessman[5]
- Susan Friedman, marketing director[6]
- Vic McKerlie, dentist[7]
Withdrawn
- Jack Jackson Jr., former state representative[8]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ellen Simon | 20,273 | 52.8 | |
Democratic | Susan Friedman | 7,062 | 18.4 | |
Democratic | Bob Donahue | 5,927 | 15.4 | |
Democratic | Mike Caccioppoli | 3,635 | 9.5 | |
Democratic | Vic McKerlie | 1,512 | 3.9 | |
Total votes | 38,409 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- David Schlosser, public relations manager[9]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | David Schlosser | 606 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 606 | 100.0 |
General election
Campaign
Attorney and community activist Ellen Simon emerged as the Democratic nominee, and though she initially trailed Renzi by wide margins she made up much a large amount of ground and closed the gap, causing many to consider the race competitive.[10] Simon challenged Renzi to a series of eight debates, to which Renzi responded by attacking Simon's husband for being behind on child support payments to his ex-wife.[11][12]
On 24 October, federal officials opened an inquiry into Renzi. It began when a local landowner filed a complaint that said that Renzi had pressured him into buying land he owned in exchange for his support on the landowner's petition with the federal government for a land swap. When that landowner refused, Renzi sold the land to a second company, who funneled the $200,000 payment ($312,000 adjusted for inflation) through a wine company his father owned.[13] Fortunately for Renzi some of these details didn't come to light until after the election.
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- State officials
- Albert Hale, state representative[15]
- Organizations
- Newspapers and publications
- Individuals
- Wesley Clark, General, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 2004 democratic presidential candidate[18]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Rick Renzi (R) |
Ellen Simon (D) |
David Schlosser (L) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics | October 24–26, 2006 | 1,037 (LV) | ±?% | 48% | 46% | 4% | 3% |
Northern Arizona University | October 20–22, 2006 | 403 (LV) | ±5.0% | 45% | 32% | 2% | 21% |
RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics | October 8–10, 2006 | 983 (LV) | ±?% | 46% | 51% | 2% | 2% |
Northern Arizona University | September 15–17, 2006 | 403 (LV) | ±5.0% | 45% | 32% | 2% | 21% |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[19] | Tossup | November 6, 2006 |
Rothenberg[20] | Tilt R | November 6, 2006 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Tilt R | November 6, 2006 |
Real Clear Politics[22] | Lean R | November 7, 2006 |
CQ Politics[23] | Tossup | November 7, 2006 |
Results
Renzi won re-election by an eight-point margin, despite the strong Democratic performance nationwide.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rick Renzi (incumbent) | 105,646 | 51.8 | |
Democratic | Ellen Simon | 88,691 | 43.5 | |
Libertarian | David Schlosser | 9,802 | 4.8 | |
Total votes | 204,139 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 2
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County results Thrasher: 60-70% 70-80% Franks: 50–60% 60-70% | |||||||||||||||||
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The heavily conservative and gerrymandered District 2, which owed its strange shape to the decision to not have Hopi and Navajo Native Americans represented by the same congressman due to historic tensions between them, had been represented by Republican Trent Franks since his initial election in 2002. Franks had been re-elected comfortably in the intervening years due to the conservative nature of the Phoenix suburbs that the district pulled from.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Trent Franks, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Trent Franks (incumbent) | 51,386 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 51,386 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John Thrasher, educator[25]
Eliminated in primary
- Suchindran Chatterjee, engineer and educator[25]
- Gene Scharer, educator and nominee for this seat in 2000[25]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | John Trasher | 11,521 | 46.7 | |
Democratic | Gene Scharer | 8,462 | 34.3 | |
Democratic | Suchindran Chatterjee | 4,667 | 18.9 | |
Total votes | 24,650 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Powell Gamill, molecular biologist[26]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Powell Gammill | 494 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 494 | 100.0 |
Independents
- William Crum (write-in), blogger[27]
General election
Campaign
Franks faced Democratic challenger John Thrasher, a music teacher who based his campaign around anti-corruption and immigration reform.[28]
Results
Franks comfortably won re-election, albeit by a smaller margin than usual.[29]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Trent Franks (incumbent) | 135,150 | 58.6 | |
Democratic | John Thrasher | 89,671 | 38.9 | |
Libertarian | Powell Gammill | 5,734 | 2.5 | |
Write-In | William Crum | 5 | 0.0 | |
Total votes | 230,560 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 3
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County results Shadegg: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The staunchly conservative 3rd district, based in the northern portion of Phoenix and its northern suburbs, had been represented by incumbent Republican John Shadegg since his initial election in 1994.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John Shadegg, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | John Shadegg (incumbent) | 35,763 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 35,763 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Herb Paine, consultant
Eliminated in primary
- Don Chilton, retired engineer[30]
- Jim McCoy
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Herb Paine | 7,902 | 50.4 | |
Democratic | Don Chilton | 7,759 | 49.5 | |
Democratic | Jim McCoy | 12 | 0.1 | |
Total votes | 15,673 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Yannone, businessman[31]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Mark Yannone | 322 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 322 | 100.0 |
General election
Endorsements
- Individuals
- Wesley Clark, General, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 2004 democratic presidential candidate[32]
Results
True to the district’s conservative nature, Shadegg defeated Paine by a wide margin, though it was significantly reduced from his 2004 margin.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | John Shadegg (incumbent) | 112,519 | 59.3 | |
Democratic | Herb Paine | 72,586 | 38.2 | |
Libertarian | Mark Yannone | 4,744 | 2.5 | |
Total votes | 189,849 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 4
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County results Pastor: 70-80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The heavily liberal 4th district, based in the southern portion of Phoenix and its southern suburbs, had a high Hispanic-American population. Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor had represented this portion of the state since a special election in 1991 to replace Mo Udall.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ed Pastor, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ed Pastor (incumbent) | 14,833 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 14,833 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Don Karg, aerospace executive
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Don Karg | 7,175 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 7,175 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ronald Harders, write-in candidate[24]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Ronald Harders | 12 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 12 | 100.0 |
General election
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ed Pastor (incumbent) | 56,464 | 72.5 | |
Republican | Don Karg | 18,627 | 23.9 | |
Libertarian | Ronald Harders | 2,770 | 3.6 | |
Total votes | 77,861 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
District 5
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County results Mitchell: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The conservative-leaning 5th district included a small portion of Phoenix and many of its northeastern suburbs, such as Scottsdale and Tempe. Republican J. D. Hayworth had represented the area since his initial election in 1994 and many considered him to be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- J. D. Hayworth, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | J. D. Hayworth (incumbent) | 38,275 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 38,275 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
Harry Mitchell, a former Mayor of Tempe, State Senator, and Chairman of the Democratic Party of Arizona, emerged as the Democrats' leading challenger to Hayworth.
Candidates
Nominee
- Harry Mitchell, chair of the Democratic Party of Arizona former state senator and former Mayor of Tempe
Endorsements
- Individuals
- Wesley Clark, General, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 2004 democratic presidential candidate[33]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Harry Mitchell | 20,852 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 20,852 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Warren Severin, businessman[34]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Warren Severin | 387 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 100.0 |
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 1, 2006
- Complete video of debate, October 17, 2006
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
J. D. Hayworth (R) |
Harry Mitchell (D) |
Warren Severin (L) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | October 29–31, 2006 | 643 (LV) | ±3.9% | 46% | 48% | 4% | 2% |
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D) | October 18–19, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
SurveyUSA | October 13–15, 2006 | 509 (LV) | ±4.4% | 48% | 45% | 5% | 2% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | September 18–19, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 52% | 38% | – | 10% |
SurveyUSA | September 15–17, 2006 | 590 (LV) | ±4.1% | 52% | 40% | 4% | 4% |
Grove Insight (D) | September 12–14, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 37% | 40% | – | 23% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 6–10, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 49% | 34% | – | 17% |
SurveyUSA | May 5–8, 2006 | 600 (RV) | ±4.1% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[19] | Tossup | November 6, 2006 |
Rothenberg[20] | Tilt D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Tilt D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
Real Clear Politics[22] | Tossup | November 7, 2006 |
CQ Politics[23] | Tossup | November 7, 2006 |
Results
The race was close for much of the fall, and Mitchell ultimately edged out Hayworth on election day by a four-point margin and was elected to his first term in Congress.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Harry Mitchell | 101,838 | 50.4 | |||
Republican | J. D. Hayworth (incumbent) | 93,815 | 46.4 | |||
Libertarian | Warren Severin | 6,357 | 3.2 | |||
Total votes | 202,010 | 100.0 | ||||
Democratic gain from Republican |
District 6
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County results Flake: 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The heavily conservative 6th district, based in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix, had been represented by Republican Congressman Jeff Flake since his initial election in 2000.
Republican primary
Flake had built up a repertoire in Congress as being a staunch fiscal conservative and an anti-earmark advocate.
Candidates
Nominee
- Jeff Flake, incumbent U.S. Representative[24]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jeff Flake (incumbent) | 43,199 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 43,199 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
No Democrat filed.
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jason M. Blair[24]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Jason M. Blair | 19 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 19 | 100.0 |
General election
Results
Flake faced no Democratic opponent and was overwhelmingly re-elected to his fourth term in Congress over Libertarian candidate Jason Blair.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jeff Flake (incumbent) | 152,201 | 74.8 | |
Libertarian | Jason M. Blair | 51,285 | 25.2 | |
Total votes | 203,486 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 7
| |||||||||||||||||
County results Grijalva: 40-50% 70-80% Drake: 40-50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The heavily Democratic 7th district, based in southwestern Arizona and covering much of the state’s border with Mexico, had a majority Hispanic-American population and had been represented by Democratic Congressman Raúl Grijalva since 2003.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Raúl Grijalva, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Raúl Grijalva | 26,604 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 26,604 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ron Drake, former Mayor of Avondale
Eliminated in primary
- Joseph Sweeney, perennial candidate[35]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ron Drake | 11,521 | 57.7 | |
Republican | Joseph Sweeney | 8,462 | 42.3 | |
Total votes | 19,983 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Joe Cobb, political advisor and economic instructor[36]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Joe Cobb | 13 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 13 | 100.0 |
General election
Grijalva faced the former Mayor of Avondale, Republican Ron Drake, and Libertarian write-in candidate Joe Cobb.
Candidates
Results
Grijalva defeated both Drake and Cobb by a comfortable margin.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) | 80,354 | 61.1 | |
Republican | Ron Drake | 46,498 | 35.4 | |
Libertarian | Joe Cobb | 4,673 | 3.6 | |
Total votes | 131,525 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
District 8
| |||||||||||||||||
County results Giffords: 50–60% Graf: 50-60% | |||||||||||||||||
|
Long-serving Republican Congressman Jim Kolbe, a respected moderate and an openly gay man, declined to seek a seventh term in Congress and thus created an open seat. The marginally conservative 8th district, based in southeastern Arizona, had narrowly supported George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 and the election was considered to be competitive.
Republican primary
Former State Representative Randy Graf, who was heavily conservative and had challenged Kolbe in the Republican primary in 2004, defeated the more moderate Steve Huffman, a state representative, in the primary, in spite of ad buys in favor of Huffman by national Republicans.[37][38]
Candidates
Nominee
- Randy Graf, former state representative and candidate for this seat in 2004
Eliminated in primary
- Frank Antenori, U.S. Army veteran[39]
- Mike Hellon, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party[40]
- Steve Huffman, state representative
- Michael T. Jenkins, automobile repair shop owner[41]
Declined
Endorsements
- U.S. Representatives
- Organizations
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Randy Graf | 27,063 | 41.6 | |
Republican | Steve Huffman | 24,119 | 37.1 | |
Republican | Mike Hellon | 9,095 | 14.0 | |
Republican | Frank Antenori | 2,724 | 4.2 | |
Republican | Michael T. Jenkins | 2,075 | 3.2 | |
Total votes | 65,076 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
Former State Senator Gabby Giffords, a moderate Democrat, triumphed against several Democrats, the most notable of which was television anchor Patty Weiss,[37] in the primary, and thus she and Graf faced off against each other in the general election.
Candidates
Nominee
- Gabby Giffords, former state senator
Eliminated in primary
- William Daniel Johnson, white nationalist activist[45]
- Jeffrey Lynn Latas, U.S. Air Force veteran[46]
- Alex Rodriguez, member of the Tucson Unified School District board[47]
- Francine Shacter, former Democratic precinct chairwoman[48]
- Patty Weiss, television anchor[49]
Endorsements
- Individuals
- Wesley Clark, General, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 2004 democratic presidential candidate[50]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Gabby Giffords | 33,375 | 54.3 | |
Democratic | Patty Weiss | 19,148 | 31.2 | |
Democratic | Jeffrey Lynn Latas | 3,687 | 6.0 | |
Democratic | Alex Rodriguez | 2,855 | 4.6 | |
Democratic | William Daniel Johnson | 1,768 | 2.9 | |
Democratic | Francine Shacter | 576 | 0.9 | |
Total votes | 61,409 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- David Nolan, co-founder of the Libertarian Party
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | David F. Nolan | 516 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 516 | 100.0 |
Independents
- Russ Dove (write-in), militiaman; campaign manager for William Daniel Johnson[51][45]
- Leo F. Kimminau (write-in)[24]
- Paul Price (write-in)[24]
- Jay Quick (Independent), geologist and businessman[52]
General election
Campaign
Giffords was the tentative favorite for most of the election, as many moderates were turned off by Graf’s conservative views and Kolbe did not endorse him as the Republican candidate.[53]
Debates
2006 Arizona's 8th congressional district general election debates | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Date & time | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||||
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee |
|||||||||||||||
Jay Quick | David F. Nolan | Gabby Giffords | Randy Graf | ||||||||||||
1[54] | October 17, 2006 | Access Tucson Arizona Daily Star |
Joe Birchall | Video | P | P | P | P |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Randy Graf (R) |
Gabby Giffords (D) |
Others | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reuters/Zogby | October 24–29, 2006 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 41% | 53% | 2% | 4% |
Wick Communications | October 25–28, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 35% | 50% | 4% | 11% |
Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star/KVOA) | October 20–23, 2006 | 600 (LV) | ±4.0% | 38% | 48% | 4% | 10% |
Reuters/Zogby | September 25 – October 2, 2006 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 37% | 45% | 2% | 16% |
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D) | September 19–21, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 29% | 54% | – | 17% |
Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star/KVOA) | September 16–19, 2006 | 600 (LV) | ±4.0% | 36% | 48% | 3% | 13% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D-Giffords) | September 9–13, 2006 | 500 (LV) | ±4.0% | 35% | 54% | 5% | 6% |
Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star) | September 1–4, 2006 | 800 (LV) | ±4.9% | 36% | 46% | – | 19% |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[19] | Lean D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
Rothenberg[20] | Likely D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Likely D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
Real Clear Politics[22] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2006 |
CQ Politics[23] | Likely D (flip) | November 7, 2006 |
Results
On election day, Giffords emerged victorious over Graf by a comfortable twelve-point margin and won her first term in Congress.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Gabby Giffords | 137,655 | 54.3 | |||
Republican | Randy Graf | 106,790 | 42.1 | |||
Libertarian | David F. Nolan | 4,849 | 1.9 | |||
Independent | Jay Dudley Quick | 4,408 | 1.7 | |||
Write-ins | Russ Dove | 7 | 0.0 | |||
Write-ins | Leo F. Kimminau | 7 | 0.0 | |||
Write-ins | Paul Price | 5 | 0.0 | |||
Total votes | 253,720 | 100.0 | ||||
Democratic gain from Republican |
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