NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament upsets

An upset is a victory by an underdog team. In the context of the NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament, a single-elimination tournament, this generally constitutes a lower seeded team defeating a higher-seeded (i.e., higher-ranked) team; a widely recognized upset is one performed by a team ranked substantially lower than its opponent.

This is the list of victories by teams seeded 11 or lower in the first round and second rounds of the tournament, as well as those by teams seeded 8 or 9 against 1 and 7 or 10 against 2 seeds in the second round, since it expanded to 64 teams in 1994; as these low-seeded teams were automatically paired against higher-seeded teams at the start of the tournament, their opening victories are almost always considered upsets. Most victories by these teams in later rounds were usually against better seeded opponents as well. The list also includes victories by teams seeded 8 or lower in the Sweet 16 (the four regional semifinals), teams seeded 7 or lower in the Elite Eight (the four regional finals), and teams seeded 6 or lower in the Final Four. All teams are listed by athletic brand names they used at the time of their wins, which do not always match those in use today.

The NCAA defines a tournament "upset" as a victory by a team seeded 5 or more lines below its defeated opponent.

The first 16 seed ever to win a game in an NCAA Division I basketball tournament was Harvard in 1998 against Stanford. According to an Associated Press retrospective on the 10th anniversary of the game in 2008, "The difference between the teams was much smaller than usual for a No. 1 and a 16 seed."^[1] Harvard had two years of tournament experience and the nation's leading scorer that season in Allison Feaster. Stanford suffered two devastating injuries during the run-up to the tournament. First, Vanessa Nygaard tore an ACL in the Cardinal's final regular-season game against Oregon State. Because the extent of her injury was not known at the time the tournament field was selected, the Cardinal still received a 1 seed. Then, in the team's first practice after the tournament selection, leading scorer and rebounder Kristin Folkl also tore an ACL.^[1]

Most successful low seeds

Best outcomes for low seeds since expansion to 64 teams in 1994:

Best Performances by #16 Seeds

Other than Harvard beating Stanford in 1998, no losing #16 seed has even lost by single digits and/or taken a game to overtime, with the closest margin of defeat being a 12-point loss by #16 Grambling to #1 Texas Tech in the same tournament.

Best Performances by #14 & #15 Seeds

No #14 seed has beaten a #3 and no #15 seed has beaten a #2 seed, but they have come close.

• 2 points: #14 Seed
  • Austin Peay lost to UNC in 2003 (2 points, 72–70)
  • Eastern Michigan lost to Boston College in 2004 (2 points, 58–56)
  • Creighton lost to St. John's in 2012 (2 points, 69–67)
• Overtime games: #15 Seed
  • UTSA lost to Baylor in 2009 (5 points, 87–82). UTSA is the only #15 seed to take a game into overtime.
• 1 point: #15 Seed
  • Long Beach State lost to Oregon State in 2017 (1 point, 56–55)

Round of 64

Detail between each pair of seeds in this section has been updated as of completion of the 2024 Round of 64, representing 120 games played between each pair.

16 defeats 1

There has been 1 game where a 16-seed has defeated a 1-seed (0.83%), in the round of 64, since 1994:

15 defeats 2

No 15-seed has ever won a game in the women's tournament.

The closest any 15 seed came to winning was in 2017, when Long Beach State lost 56–55 to 2 seed Oregon State.

14 defeats 3

No 14-seed has ever won a game in the women's tournament.

The closest any 14 seed has come to winning are the three 2-point losses to 3 seeds in 2003, 2004, and 2012.

13 defeats 4

There have been 7 games where a 13-seed has defeated a 4-seed (5.83%), in the round of 64, since 1994:

12 defeats 5

There have been 26 games where a 12-seed has defeated a 5-seed (21.67%), in the round of 64, since 1994:

11 defeats 6

There have been 37 games where an 11-seed has defeated a 6-seed (30.83%), in the round of 64, since 1994:

Round of 32

This round is called the second round. Occasionally, it is referred to as the regional quarterfinals.

This shows all Round of 32 upset victories by teams seeded 11 or lower, continuing their upset victories from the round of 64. This section introduces additional "meeting criteria of team seeded 5 or more lines below its defeated opponent", being all Round of 32 upset victories by teams seeded 8 or 9 against 1 seeds and by teams seeded 7 or 10 against 2 seeds.

16th seed victories

No 16 seed has ever won a second-round game. Harvard, the only 16 seed to advance to the second round, lost to 9 seed Arkansas 82–64 in the second round.

13th seed victories

Three of the seven 13 seeds (42.86%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved a victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.

All of the 13 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 5 seed.

12th seed victories

Four of the twenty-six 12 seeds (15.38%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved a victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.

All of the 12 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 4 seed.

11th seed victories

Eleven of the thirty-seven 11 seeds (29.73%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved a victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.

All of the 11 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 3 seed.

10th seed victories

Five of the forty-one 10 seeds (12.2%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved a victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.

All of the 10 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 2 seed.

9th seed victories

Four of the fifty-nine 9 seeds (6.78%) who advanced from the round of 64 also won in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.

One of these victories was against a lower seeded team that had also advanced from the round of 64 due to upset; thus, this second-round victory does not count as an upset, and has been shown here in a table separate from the three upset wins by 9 seeds in the second round. Three of the fifty-eight 9 seeds who have faced a 1 seed advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (5.17%).

8th seed victories

Two of the sixty-one 8 seeds (3.28%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved a victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses. Neither of these teams would win in the Sweet Sixteen, with Boston College losing to 5 seed Utah by three points in 2006 after missing three game tying shots in the last 20 seconds and Ole Miss losing by ten points to 5 seed Louisville in 2023.

Both of the 8 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 1 seed.

7th seed victories

Sixteen of the seventy-nine 7 seeds (20.25%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved a victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.

All of the 7 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 2 seed.

Sweet Sixteen

The Sweet Sixteen are the eight pairs of teams that meet in the Regional semifinals.

13 seeds

Although three 13 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen, none of them won their games in this round. The closest margin of defeat happened in 2007, when Marist lost to 1 seed Tennessee by 19 points.

12 seeds

Although four 12 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen, none of them won their games in this round. The closest margin of defeat happened in 2014, when BYU lost to 1 seed UConn by 19 points.

11 seeds

One of the eleven 11 seeds (9.09%) who advanced from the round of 32 also achieved a victory in the Sweet Sixteen. Seed of the team they defeated is in parentheses, showing that this was not an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines).

^‡ Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.

10 seeds

Two of the five 10 seeds (40%) who advanced from the round of 32 also achieved a victory in the Sweet Sixteen. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that both of these were upset victories (separated by more than 4 seed lines).

9 seeds

Two of the four 9 seeds (40%) who advanced from the round of 32 also achieved a victory in the Sweet Sixteen. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that one of these was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines).

^‡ Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.

Elite Eight

The Elite Eight are the four pairs of teams that meet in the Regional Finals.

11 seeds

The only 11 seed who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen, Gonzaga in 2011, was defeated in the Elite Eight by one-seed North Carolina, 83-60.

10 seeds

Although two 10 seeds have advanced from the Sweet Sixteen, both were defeated in the Elite Eight: Oregon to top-seeded UConn, 90-52 in 2017, and Creighton to top-seeded South Carolina, 80-50 in 2022.

9 seeds

One of the two 9 seeds who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight. Seed of the team they defeated is in parentheses, showing that this was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines). The team did not win in the Final Four.

7 seeds

Two of the six 7 seeds who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that one of these was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines). Neither team won in the Final Four.

^‡ Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.

6 seeds

Two 6 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that one of these was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines). Neither team won in the Final Four.

^‡ Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.

Final Four

The Final Four are the winners of the four Regional Finals.

To date, no team has ever completed an official upset in the Final Four. The most seed lines apart a winning lower seed has been is three, achieved by 5 seed Louisville, who beat 2 seed California 64-57 in 2013.

9 seeds

The only 9 seed who advanced from the Elite Eight, Arkansas in 1998, was defeated in the Final Four by one-seed Tennessee, 86-58.

7 seeds

Although two 7 seeds have advanced from the Sweet Sixteen, both were defeated in the Final Four: Minnesota to second-seeded UConn, 67-58 in 2004, and Washington to fourth-seeded Syracuse, 80-59 in 2016.

6 seeds

Although two 6 seeds have advanced from the Elite Eight, neither faced a 1 seed (which winning against would be considered an official upset), and both were defeated in the Final Four: Alabama to fourth-seeded Louisiana Tech, 69-66 in 1994, and Notre Dame to third-seeded Tennessee, 80-66 in 1997.

National Championship

To date, no team has ever completed an official upset in the National Championship. The most seed lines apart a winning lower seed has been is two, achieved by 3 seed Tennessee, who beat 1 seed Old Dominion 68-59 in 1997.

The lowest seed to ever make a National Championship is 5 seed Louisville in 2013, who lost to 1 seed UConn 93–60.

The lowest seed to ever win a National Championship is a 3 seed, achieved by 1994 North Carolina, 1997 Tennessee, and 2023 LSU.

See also

• NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament upsets

References

This page was last edited on 11 April 2024, at 18:39